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AZ Alkmaar - NAC Breda: our prediction

17/05/2026•14:30

AZ Alkmaar

3:3

(2:0)

Finished

NAC Breda

AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda Preview — Eredivisie

AZ Alkmaar, heavy favorite (odds at 1.34), hosts NAC Breda for an Eredivisie match. Statistics show a clear dominance of AZ at home, with a prolific attack (9 times over 1.5 goals in 10 matches). NAC Breda struggles away and has won only 2 of its last 10 matches. Both teams rarely score together (4 times for AZ, 3 for NAC).

Our AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda predictions

AZ Alkmaar Victory

AZ Alkmaar is the favorite with odds of 1.34. In their last 10 matches, the team has won 4 times and lost only 2. At home, AZ is very solid, with 9 out of 10 matches exceeding 1.5 goals, showing strong offensive capability. On the other hand, NAC Breda has won only 2 of its last 10 matches and lost 5. Away from home, the task looks difficult for NAC, which has not won any match as an underdog. Logic and statistics point to an AZ victory.

1.29

Confidence

High

Over 1.5 goals in the match

Statistics show a strong trend towards goals in AZ Alkmaar's matches. In their last 10 games, 9 have seen over 1.5 goals. For NAC Breda, 8 of their last 10 matches have also exceeded this threshold. Combined with AZ's offensive power at home and NAC's defensive difficulties away, it is very likely that the match will total at least 2 goals.

1.07

Confidence

High

Under 1.5 goals for NAC Breda

NAC Breda has shown a weak offensive capability, especially away. In their last 10 matches, the team has scored more than 1.5 goals only 2 times. Conversely, 8 of their matches have seen under 1.5 goals from them. Facing a solid AZ defense at home (4 clean sheets in 10), it is plausible that NAC Breda will not score more than one goal, or even none.

1.34

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda Statistics

History

1 Home / 2 Away

Win

	AZ Alkmaar	NAC Breda
Win	4 4 2	2 3 5
Win Draw Lose

When Favorite

	1	2
Did not lose by being a favorite	83%	83%
Victory by being rated between 1.00 and 1.20	0%	0%
Victory by being rated between 1.21 and 1.50	100%	0%
Victory by being rated between 1.51 and 1.80	100%	100%
Victory by being rated between 1.81 and above	25%	20%
Win by being a favorite	50%	33%

When Outsider

	1	2
Did not lose by being an outsider	75%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.8 and above	25%	0%
Win by being an outsider	25%	0%

Clean sheet

	1	2
Clean sheet	40% 60%	30% 70%
Yes No

Both teams score

	1	2
Both teams score	40% 60%	30% 40%
Yes No

Half-time

	1	2
Draw at halftime	40% 60%	40% 60%
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team	60% 40%	20% 80%
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game	70% 30%	60% 40%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team	20% 80%	10% 90%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game	30% 70%	40% 60%
Leading at half-time	50% 50%	20% 80%
More goals Under goals

Half with most goals

	1	2
1st half	20%	30%
2nd half	50%	40%

Goals Over/Under

	1	2
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game	90% 10%	90% 10%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game	90% 10%	80% 20%
Goals Over/Under 2.5 per game	70% 30%	40% 60%
Goals Over/Under 3.5 per game	40% 60%	20% 80%
Goals Over/Under 4.5 per game	10% 90%	20% 80%
More goals Under goals

Goals Over/Under (by team)

	1	2
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team	70% 30%	50% 50%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team	60% 40%	20% 80%
Goals Over/Under 2.5 by team	30% 70%	10% 90%
Goals Over/Under 3.5 by team	20% 80%	100%
Goals Over/Under 4.5 by team	10% 90%	100%
More goals Under goals

% of matches in which a player has scored

	1	2
Sven Mijnans	40% (4/10)	25% (2/8)	Mohamed Nassoh
Troy Parrott	33% (3/9)	17% (1/6)	Boyd Lucassen
Peer Koopmeiners	40% (2/5)	10% (1/10)	Juho Talvitie
Mexx Meerdink	20% (2/10)	10% (1/10)	Andre Ayew
Matej Sin	11% (1/9)	20% (1/5)	Moussa Soumano
Mateo Chavez	11% (1/9)	10% (1/10)	Kamal Sowah
Kees Smit	13% (1/8)	10% (1/10)	Boy Kemper
Jordy Clasie	14% (1/7)
Isak Steiner Jensen	11% (1/9)
Mees de Wit	13% (1/8)

Total goals per player

	1	2
Sven Mijnans	⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽5	⚽⚽2	Boy Kemper
Troy Parrott	⚽⚽⚽3	⚽⚽2	Mohamed Nassoh
Peer Koopmeiners	⚽⚽2	⚽⚽2	Moussa Soumano
Mexx Meerdink	⚽⚽2	⚽1	Boyd Lucassen
Isak Steiner Jensen	⚽1	⚽1	Kamal Sowah
Kees Smit	⚽1	⚽1	Juho Talvitie
Jordy Clasie	⚽1	⚽1	Andre Ayew
Mateo Chavez	⚽1
Matej Sin	⚽1
Mees de Wit	⚽1

Over corners (per game)

	1	2
Over corners 6.5	90%	100%
Over corners 7.5	80%	90%
Over corners 8.5	80%	90%
Over corners 9.5	70%	80%
Over corners 10.5	50%	70%
Over corners 11.5	40%	70%
Over corners 12.5	20%	50%

Over corners (per team)

	1	2
Over corners 2.5	90%	100%
Over corners 3.5	70%	100%
Over corners 4.5	60%	70%
Over corners 5.5	60%	60%
Over corners 6.5	50%	50%

Over X yellow cards (per team)

	1	2
0.5	80%	80%
1.5	40%	20%
2.5	20%	10%
3.5	20%	10%
4.5	10%	0%
5.5	0%	0%

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