St. Pauli - Mainz 05: our prediction
03/05/2026•15:30
St. Pauli
1:2
(0:2)
Finished
Mainz 05
-
1
-
X
-
2
St. Pauli vs Mainz 05 Preview — Bundesliga
St. Pauli hosts Mainz 05 in a Bundesliga match. Mainz 05 is the favorite with odds of 2.54, while St. Pauli is at 2.75. Mainz has shown better recent form with 5 wins in their last 10 games, compared to only 2 for St. Pauli. Both teams have modest offensive statistics, but Mainz appears more solid defensively.
Our St. Pauli vs Mainz 05 predictions
Under 1.5 goals for St. Pauli
St. Pauli has a very weak attack. In their last 10 matches, they have scored more than 1.5 goals only once (10%). The 'underparou15' statistic is at 90% for St. Pauli, which is extremely reliable. Combined with Mainz 05's solid defense, it is very likely that St. Pauli will not score more than one goal.
1.25
Confidence
Very high
Under 2.5 goals
Statistics show that 60% of St. Pauli's matches and 60% of Mainz 05's matches have had under 2.5 goals in their last 10 games. Both teams have unproductive attacks, with St. Pauli averaging less than one goal per game. The match promises to be tight and not very open, favoring a low score.
1.74
Confidence
High
Mainz 05 to win
Mainz 05 is the favorite and has shown much better recent form with 5 wins in their last 10 games, compared to only 2 for St. Pauli. St. Pauli has also lost 5 of their last 10 games. The 'victoir' statistics indicate a clear trend in favor of Mainz 05, especially away from home where they have won 50% of their matches. The odds reflect this favorite status.
2.5
Confidence
High
Market signals on St. Pauli vs Mainz 05
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
St. Pauli vs Mainz 05 Statistics
Win
 |  | |
|---|---|---|
Win | 2 3 5 | 5 2 3 |
Win Draw Lose | ||
When Favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Did not lose by being a favorite | 67% | 83% |
Victory by being rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 0% |
Victory by being rated between 1.21 and 1.50 | 0% | 100% |
Victory by being rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 0% | 0% |
Victory by being rated between 1.81 and above | 33% | 75% |
Win by being a favorite | 33% | 67% |
When Outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Did not lose by being an outsider | 43% | 50% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 0% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 0% | 0% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.8 and above | 14% | 25% |
Win by being an outsider | 14% | 25% |
Clean sheet
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Clean sheet | 20% 80% | 40% 60% |
Yes No | ||
Both teams score
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Both teams score | 40% 60% | 40% 40% |
Yes No | ||
Half-time
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Draw at halftime | 30% 70% | 50% 50% |
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team | 30% 70% | 50% 50% |
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game | 70% 30% | 70% 30% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team | 100% | 20% 80% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game | 10% 90% | 50% 50% |
Leading at half-time | 30% 70% | 30% 70% |
More goals Under goals | ||
Half with most goals
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
1st half | 10% | 30% |
2nd half | 40% | 30% |
Goals Over/Under
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game | 90% 10% | 90% 10% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game | 80% 20% | 80% 20% |
Goals Over/Under 2.5 per game | 40% 60% | 40% 60% |
Goals Over/Under 3.5 per game | 20% 80% | 20% 80% |
Goals Over/Under 4.5 per game | 10% 90% | 10% 90% |
More goals Under goals | ||
Goals Over/Under (by team)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team | 50% 50% | 70% 30% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team | 10% 90% | 60% 40% |
Goals Over/Under 2.5 by team | 100% | 10% 90% |
Goals Over/Under 3.5 by team | 100% | 100% |
Goals Over/Under 4.5 by team | 100% | 100% |
More goals Under goals | ||
% of matches in which a player has scored
| 1 | 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Abdoulie Ceesay | 30% (3/10) | 30% (3/10) | Phillip Tietz |
| Karol Mets | 17% (1/6) | 25% (2/8) | Sheraldo Becker |
| Mathias Pereira Lage | 17% (1/6) | 25% (2/8) | Nadiem Amiri |
| Danel Sinani | 10% (1/10) | 20% (2/10) | Paul Nebel |
10% (1/10) | Stefan Posch | ||
10% (1/10) | Phillipp Mwene | ||
10% (1/10) | Kaishu Sano | ||
10% (1/10) | Dominik Kohr |
Total goals per player
| 1 | 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Abdoulie Ceesay | ⚽⚽⚽3 | ⚽⚽⚽⚽4 | Phillip Tietz |
| Mathias Pereira Lage | ⚽1 | ⚽⚽⚽3 | Paul Nebel |
| Karol Mets | ⚽1 | ⚽⚽2 | Sheraldo Becker |
| Danel Sinani | ⚽1 | ⚽⚽2 | Nadiem Amiri |
⚽1 | Stefan Posch | ||
⚽1 | Dominik Kohr | ||
⚽1 | Kaishu Sano | ||
⚽1 | Phillipp Mwene |
Over corners (per game)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Over corners 6.5 | 70% | 70% |
Over corners 7.5 | 60% | 70% |
Over corners 8.5 | 60% | 50% |
Over corners 9.5 | 50% | 40% |
Over corners 10.5 | 50% | 20% |
Over corners 11.5 | 30% | 20% |
Over corners 12.5 | 20% | 10% |
Over corners (per team)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Over corners 2.5 | 70% | 90% |
Over corners 3.5 | 30% | 80% |
Over corners 4.5 | 30% | 50% |
Over corners 5.5 | 30% | 30% |
Over corners 6.5 | 10% | 10% |
Over X yellow cards (per team)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
0.5 | 100% | 100% |
1.5 | 60% | 50% |
2.5 | 20% | 20% |
3.5 | 10% | 10% |
4.5 | 0% | 0% |
5.5 | 0% | 0% |
Lineups
St. Pauli
3-4-2-1CoachAlexander Blessin
Starting XI
Substitutes
Mainz 05
3-5-2CoachUrs Fischer
Starting XI
Substitutes
Ranking by bet
| # | Team | Success | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  | Bayern Munich | 82%(28/34) |
| 2 |  | Borussia Dortmund | 65%(22/34) |
| 3 |  | RB Leipzig | 59%(20/34) |
| 4 |  | Hoffenheim | 53%(18/34) |
| 5 |  | Bayer Leverkusen | 53%(18/34) |
| 6 |  | VfB Stuttgart | 53%(18/34) |
| 7 |  | Freiburg | 38%(13/34) |
| 8 |  | Augsburg | 35%(12/34) |
| 9 |  | Eintracht Frankfurt | 32%(11/34) |
| 10 |  | Union Berlin | 29%(10/34) |
| 11 | | Mainz 05 | 29%(10/34) |
| 12 |  | Hamburger SV | 26%(9/34) |
| 13 |  | Borussia Moenchengladbach | 26%(9/34) |
| 14 |  | Werder Bremen | 24%(8/34) |
| 15 |  | Wolfsburg | 21%(7/34) |
| 16 |  | FC Koeln | 21%(7/34) |
| 17 |  | FC Heidenheim | 18%(6/34) |
| 18 | | St. Pauli | 18%(6/34) |
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