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Marseille - Metz: our prediction

10/04/2026•21:05

Marseille

3:1

(1:0)

Finished

Metz

Marseille vs Metz Preview — Ligue 1

Marseille hosts Metz in a Ligue 1 match where bookmakers heavily favor Marseille (odds at 1.23). Over their last 10 matches, Marseille has had mixed form (4W, 2D, 4L) but remains solid at home. Metz, struggling away, has not won any of its last 10 matches (0W, 3D, 7L). Statistics show a strong goal-scoring trend for Marseille and a fragile defense for Metz.

Our Marseille vs Metz predictions

Over 2.5 goals in the match

Marseille has a strong goal trend: in the last 10 matches, 7 had over 2.5 goals (70%). Marseille's attack is prolific with scorers like Greenwood (5 goals), Aubameyang (4), and Gouiri (4). Metz, on the other hand, saw 5 of its last 10 matches exceed 2.5 goals, often due to its fragile defense (7 losses in 10). The combination of an in-form Marseille attack and a vulnerable Metz defense favors a match with over 2 goals.

1.3

Confidence

High

Marseille Victory

Marseille is clearly favored (odds 1.23) and plays at home. Over the last 10 matches, Marseille has won 4 times, while Metz has not won any (0W, 3D, 7L). Metz has a weak attack away (scores in only 30% of cases) and a defense that often concedes. The 'Does not lose when favorite' statistics show that Marseille avoided defeat in 6 of its last 8 matches as favorite. No major absences reported.

1.23

Confidence

High

Market signals on Marseille vs Metz

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Marseille vs Metz Statistics

History

1 Home / 2 Away

Win

	Marseille	Metz
Win	4 2 4	3 7
Win Draw Lose

When Favorite

	1	2
Did not lose by being a favorite	75%	0%
Victory by being rated between 1.00 and 1.20	0%	0%
Victory by being rated between 1.21 and 1.50	100%	0%
Victory by being rated between 1.51 and 1.80	50%	0%
Victory by being rated between 1.81 and above	25%	0%
Win by being a favorite	50%	0%

When Outsider

	1	2
Did not lose by being an outsider	0%	30%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.8 and above	0%	0%
Win by being an outsider	0%	0%

Clean sheet

	1	2
Clean sheet	30% 70%	30% 70%
Yes No

Both teams score

	1	2
Both teams score	50% 50%	30% 50%
Yes No

Half-time

	1	2
Draw at halftime	30% 70%	40% 60%
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team	50% 50%	20% 80%
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game	80% 20%	60% 40%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team	100%	10% 90%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game	30% 70%	30% 70%
Leading at half-time	40% 60%	100%
More goals Under goals

Half with most goals

	1	2
1st half	20%	40%
2nd half	70%	30%

Goals Over/Under

	1	2
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game	100%	70% 30%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game	80% 20%	50% 50%
Goals Over/Under 2.5 per game	70% 30%	50% 50%
Goals Over/Under 3.5 per game	40% 60%	30% 70%
Goals Over/Under 4.5 per game	20% 80%	20% 80%
More goals Under goals

Goals Over/Under (by team)

	1	2
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team	80% 20%	30% 70%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team	40% 60%	20% 80%
Goals Over/Under 2.5 by team	20% 80%	10% 90%
Goals Over/Under 3.5 by team	100%	100%
Goals Over/Under 4.5 by team	100%	100%
More goals Under goals

% of matches in which a player has scored

	1	2
Amine Gouiri	33% (3/9)	25% (2/8)	Giorgi Kvilitaia
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang	22% (2/9)	13% (1/8)	Giorgi Abuashvili
Mason Greenwood	22% (2/9)	13% (1/8)	Giorgi Tsitaishvili
Pierre-Emile Hoejbjerg	20% (2/10)	13% (1/8)	Gauthier Hein
Igor Paixao	11% (1/9)	13% (1/8)	Jessy Deminguet
Hamed Traore	14% (1/7)	13% (1/8)	Nathan Mbala
Ethan Nwaneri	10% (1/10)	20% (1/5)	Jahyann Pandore
		13% (1/8)	Koffi Kouao

Total goals per player

	1	2
Amine Gouiri	⚽⚽⚽3	⚽⚽2	Gauthier Hein
Mason Greenwood	⚽⚽2	⚽⚽2	Giorgi Kvilitaia
Pierre-Emile Hoejbjerg	⚽⚽2	⚽1	Koffi Kouao
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang	⚽⚽2	⚽1	Jahyann Pandore
Ethan Nwaneri	⚽1	⚽1	Jessy Deminguet
Hamed Traore	⚽1	⚽1	Nathan Mbala
Igor Paixao	⚽1	⚽1	Giorgi Abuashvili
		⚽1	Giorgi Tsitaishvili

Over corners (per game)

	1	2
Over corners 6.5	70%	90%
Over corners 7.5	60%	60%
Over corners 8.5	50%	50%
Over corners 9.5	40%	40%
Over corners 10.5	10%	10%
Over corners 11.5	0%	10%
Over corners 12.5	0%	10%

Over corners (per team)

	1	2
Over corners 2.5	60%	70%
Over corners 3.5	60%	60%
Over corners 4.5	60%	30%
Over corners 5.5	40%	30%
Over corners 6.5	30%	10%

Over X yellow cards (per team)

	1	2
0.5	100%	90%
1.5	90%	70%
2.5	60%	20%
3.5	40%	0%
4.5	10%	0%
5.5	0%	0%

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