Atletico Madrid - Athletic Bilbao: our prediction
25/04/2026•21:00
Atletico Madrid
3:2
(0:1)
Finished
Athletic Bilbao
-
1
-
X
-
2
Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao Preview — LaLiga
Atletico Madrid, the favorite, hosts Athletic Bilbao. Statistics show a strong tendency for goals for Atletico, but a leaky defense. Bilbao is solid defensively but less prolific. The match promises to be tight.
Our Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao predictions
Over 1.5 goals for Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid has scored at least 2 goals in 8 of their last 10 matches (over15 indicator at 80%). The attack is in form, led by Julian Alvarez (5 goals). At home, the team is even more offensive.
1.25
Confidence
Very high (80 %)
Under 3.5 goals in the match
Although Atletico Madrid is offensive, Athletic Bilbao has a solid defense (only 1 clean sheet, but tendency to limit high scores). In Bilbao's last 10 matches, there were under 3.5 goals in 100% of cases (under35 indicator at 100%). Combined with Atletico's tendency to concede, a score of 2-1 or 2-0 is most likely, which remains under 3.5 goals.
1.37
Confidence
High (65 %)
Both teams to score
Atletico Madrid has conceded goals in 8 of their last 10 matches (cleansheetno at 80%). Athletic Bilbao has scored in 6 of their last 10 matches (parou05 at 60%). Atletico's defense is fragile, while Bilbao has offensive assets like Guruzeta (4 goals).
1.67
Confidence
High (65 %)
Market signals on Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao Statistics
Win
 |  | |
|---|---|---|
Win | 3 1 6 | 4 1 5 |
Win Draw Lose | ||
When Favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Did not lose by being a favorite | 100% | 57% |
Victory by being rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 0% |
Victory by being rated between 1.21 and 1.50 | 0% | 0% |
Victory by being rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 67% | 100% |
Victory by being rated between 1.81 and above | 0% | 50% |
Win by being a favorite | 67% | 57% |
When Outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Did not lose by being an outsider | 14% | 33% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 0% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 0% | 0% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.8 and above | 14% | 0% |
Win by being an outsider | 14% | 0% |
Clean sheet
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Clean sheet | 20% 80% | 10% 90% |
Yes No | ||
Both teams score
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Both teams score | 80% 20% | 50% 80% |
Yes No | ||
Half-time
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Draw at halftime | 20% 80% | 30% 70% |
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team | 90% 10% | 20% 80% |
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game | 100% | 70% 30% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team | 20% 80% | 10% 90% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game | 60% 40% | 20% 80% |
Leading at half-time | 40% 60% | 20% 80% |
More goals Under goals | ||
Half with most goals
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
1st half | 70% | 30% |
2nd half | 20% | 50% |
Goals Over/Under
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game | 100% | 100% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game | 90% 10% | 70% 30% |
Goals Over/Under 2.5 per game | 80% 20% | 50% 50% |
Goals Over/Under 3.5 per game | 50% 50% | 100% |
Goals Over/Under 4.5 per game | 40% 60% | 100% |
More goals Under goals | ||
Goals Over/Under (by team)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team | 100% | 60% 40% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team | 60% 40% | 30% 70% |
Goals Over/Under 2.5 by team | 10% 90% | 100% |
Goals Over/Under 3.5 by team | 10% 90% | 100% |
Goals Over/Under 4.5 by team | 10% 90% | 100% |
More goals Under goals | ||
% of matches in which a player has scored
| 1 | 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Ademola Lookman | 38% (3/8) | 40% (4/10) | Gorka Guruzeta |
| Nico Gonzalez | 50% (2/4) | 29% (2/7) | Oihan Sancet |
| Julian Alvarez | 50% (2/4) | 10% (1/10) | Inaki Williams |
| Alexander Soerloth | 25% (2/8) | 11% (1/9) | Daniel Vivian |
| Marc Pubill | 10% (1/10) | 10% (1/10) | Robert Navarro |
| Iker Luque | 17% (1/6) | 11% (1/9) | Aitor Paredes |
| Thiago Almada | 13% (1/8) | 11% (1/9) | Urko Izeta |
| Miguel Llorente | 17% (1/6) | 17% (1/6) | Nico Williams |
| Alejandro Baena | 11% (1/9) | ||
| Antoine Griezmann | 10% (1/10) |
Total goals per player
| 1 | 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Gonzalez | ⚽⚽⚽3 | ⚽⚽⚽⚽4 | Gorka Guruzeta |
| Ademola Lookman | ⚽⚽⚽3 | ⚽⚽2 | Oihan Sancet |
| Alexander Soerloth | ⚽⚽⚽3 | ⚽⚽2 | Nico Williams |
| Julian Alvarez | ⚽⚽2 | ⚽1 | Daniel Vivian |
| Miguel Llorente | ⚽1 | ⚽1 | Urko Izeta |
| Alejandro Baena | ⚽1 | ⚽1 | Aitor Paredes |
| Antoine Griezmann | ⚽1 | ⚽1 | Robert Navarro |
| Iker Luque | ⚽1 | ⚽1 | Inaki Williams |
| Marc Pubill | ⚽1 | ||
| Thiago Almada | ⚽1 |
Over corners (per game)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Over corners 6.5 | 70% | 70% |
Over corners 7.5 | 70% | 60% |
Over corners 8.5 | 60% | 60% |
Over corners 9.5 | 60% | 40% |
Over corners 10.5 | 50% | 40% |
Over corners 11.5 | 40% | 20% |
Over corners 12.5 | 30% | 20% |
Over corners (per team)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Over corners 2.5 | 60% | 90% |
Over corners 3.5 | 50% | 70% |
Over corners 4.5 | 40% | 50% |
Over corners 5.5 | 30% | 40% |
Over corners 6.5 | 20% | 30% |
Over X yellow cards (per team)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
0.5 | 80% | 100% |
1.5 | 80% | 80% |
2.5 | 60% | 40% |
3.5 | 30% | 10% |
4.5 | 10% | 10% |
5.5 | 10% | 0% |
Lineups
Atletico Madrid
4-4-2CoachDiego Simeone
Starting XI
Substitutes
Athletic Bilbao
4-2-3-1CoachErnesto Valverde
Starting XI
Substitutes
Ranking by bet
| # | Team | Success | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  | Barcelona | 82%(31/38) |
| 2 |  | Real Madrid | 71%(27/38) |
| 3 |  | Villarreal | 58%(22/38) |
| 4 | | Atletico Madrid | 55%(21/38) |
| 5 |  | Real Betis | 39%(15/38) |
| 6 |  | Getafe | 39%(15/38) |
| 7 |  | Celta Vigo | 37%(14/38) |
| 8 |  | Valencia | 34%(13/38) |
| 9 | | Athletic Bilbao | 34%(13/38) |
| 10 |  | Sevilla | 32%(12/38) |
| 11 |  | Espanyol | 32%(12/38) |
| 12 |  | Rayo Vallecano | 32%(12/38) |
| 13 |  | Deportivo Alaves | 29%(11/38) |
| 14 |  | Real Sociedad | 29%(11/38) |
| 15 |  | Levante | 29%(11/38) |
| 16 |  | Osasuna | 29%(11/38) |
| 17 |  | Mallorca | 29%(11/38) |
| 18 |  | Elche | 26%(10/38) |
| 19 |  | Girona | 24%(9/38) |
| 20 |  | Real Oviedo | 16%(6/38) |
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