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Barcelona - Real Madrid: our prediction

11/01/2026•20:00

Barcelona

3:2

(2:2)

Finished

Real Madrid

Barcelona vs Real Madrid Preview — Super Cup

FC Barcelona, the bookmakers' favorite and in excellent form (9 wins in 10 matches), hosts Real Madrid at home. Madrid, solid away, possesses a formidable attack led by Mbappé. An intense match with many goals is expected.

Our Barcelona vs Real Madrid predictions

FC Barcelona Victory

Barcelona shows excellent form with 9 wins in their last 10 matches, including 9 wins when favorite. At home, their success rate is 90%. Although Real Madrid is solid, Barcelona has home advantage and a more consistent attack.

Confidence

High

Over 2.5 goals in the match

The offensive statistics of both teams are convincing. In their last 10 matches, Barcelona saw over 2.5 goals in 60% of cases, and Real Madrid in 70% of cases. Both teams score regularly, and duels between these clubs often result in open matches.

1.25

Confidence

High

Real Madrid scores over 1.5 goals

Real Madrid has scored at least 2 goals in 7 of their last 10 matches. Their attack, led by Kylian Mbappé (11 goals in 10 matches), is very effective. Even if Barcelona can win, the Catalan defense (4 clean sheets in 10) can concede goals against such an offense.

1.79

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Barcelona vs Real Madrid

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Barcelona vs Real Madrid Statistics

History

1 Home / 2 Away

Win

	Barcelona	Real Madrid
Win	9 1	7 1 2
Win Draw Lose

When Favorite

	1	2
Did not lose by being a favorite	100%	89%
Victory by being rated between 1.00 and 1.20	100%	100%
Victory by being rated between 1.21 and 1.50	100%	50%
Victory by being rated between 1.51 and 1.80	100%	75%
Victory by being rated between 1.81 and above	100%	100%
Win by being a favorite	100%	78%

When Outsider

	1	2
Did not lose by being an outsider	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.8 and above	0%	0%
Win by being an outsider	0%	0%

Clean sheet

	1	2
Clean sheet	50% 50%	20% 80%
Yes No

Both teams score

	1	2
Both teams score	40% 60%	70% 40%
Yes No

Half-time

	1	2
Draw at halftime	40% 60%	10% 90%
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team	50% 50%	80% 20%
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game	70% 30%	90% 10%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team	30% 70%	30% 70%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game	40% 60%	40% 60%
Leading at half-time	40% 60%	70% 30%
More goals Under goals

Half with most goals

	1	2
1st half	30%	30%
2nd half	50%	50%

Goals Over/Under

	1	2
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game	100%	100%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game	100%	100%
Goals Over/Under 2.5 per game	60% 40%	70% 30%
Goals Over/Under 3.5 per game	40% 60%	30% 70%
Goals Over/Under 4.5 per game	20% 80%	30% 70%
More goals Under goals

Goals Over/Under (by team)

	1	2
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team	90% 10%	90% 10%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team	90% 10%	70% 30%
Goals Over/Under 2.5 by team	40% 60%	40% 60%
Goals Over/Under 3.5 by team	20% 80%	20% 80%
Goals Over/Under 4.5 by team	20% 80%	10% 90%
More goals Under goals

% of matches in which a player has scored

	1	2
Ferran Torres	44% (4/9)	44% (4/9)	Vinicius Junior
Marcus Rashford	30% (3/10)	50% (4/8)	Kylian Mbappe
Lamine Yamal	75% (3/4)	20% (2/10)	Gonzalo Garcia
Robert Lewandowski	20% (2/10)	20% (2/10)	Jude Bellingham
Fermin Lopez	13% (1/8)	10% (1/10)	Brahim Diaz
Raphinha	33% (1/3)	20% (1/5)	Arda Guler
Joao Cancelo	10% (1/10)	14% (1/7)	Federico Valverde

Total goals per player

	1	2
Ferran Torres	⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽5	⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽5	Vinicius Junior
Lamine Yamal	⚽⚽⚽3	⚽⚽⚽⚽4	Kylian Mbappe
Marcus Rashford	⚽⚽⚽3	⚽⚽2	Jude Bellingham
Raphinha	⚽⚽2	⚽⚽2	Gonzalo Garcia
Robert Lewandowski	⚽⚽2	⚽⚽2	Arda Guler
Fermin Lopez	⚽1	⚽1	Federico Valverde
Joao Cancelo	⚽1	⚽1	Brahim Diaz

Over corners (per game)

	1	2
Over corners 6.5	80%	90%
Over corners 7.5	80%	80%
Over corners 8.5	80%	70%
Over corners 9.5	60%	60%
Over corners 10.5	50%	40%
Over corners 11.5	50%	30%
Over corners 12.5	30%	10%

Over corners (per team)

	1	2
Over corners 2.5	80%	80%
Over corners 3.5	80%	70%
Over corners 4.5	80%	70%
Over corners 5.5	40%	40%
Over corners 6.5	40%	30%

Over X yellow cards (per team)

	1	2
0.5	0%	20%
1.5	0%	0%
2.5	0%	0%
3.5	0%	0%
4.5	0%	0%
5.5	0%	0%

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