Rugby

Tennis

Toluca - Leon: our prediction

26/04/2026•03:05

Toluca

4:1

(1:1)

Finished

Leon

Toluca vs Leon Preview — Liga MX Clausura

Toluca, favorite at home, faces Leon. Toluca has a low win rate (30%) but rarely loses when favored. Leon is in form with 60% wins in their last 10 matches. Both teams score often (70% for Toluca, 60% for Leon). Leon's matches tend to go over 2.5 goals (80%).

Our Toluca vs Leon predictions

Over 2.5 goals

Leon has seen over 2.5 goals in 80% of its last 10 matches, a very high number. Toluca is at 60%. Both teams tend to play open matches. The odds of 4.4 for this bet are very attractive given the statistics. Combined with the 'Both teams to score' bet, it is very likely that the total goals will exceed 2.5.

1.5

Confidence

Very high (80 %)

Leon scores over 1.5 goals

Leon has scored more than 1.5 goals in 70% of its last 10 matches (parou15). Toluca has conceded at least one goal in 80% of its matches (cleansheetno). Leon is in form and has a prolific striker (Diber Cambindo with 5 goals). Toluca's defense is weak, which should allow Leon to score at least twice.

2.48

Confidence

High (65 %)

Both teams to score

Toluca has seen both teams score in 70% of its last 10 matches, and Leon in 60%. Both teams have decent attacks but defenses that concede goals (Toluca kept a clean sheet only 2 times in 10, Leon as well). The odds (1.48 for Toluca) suggest a tight but open match. The fact that Toluca is favorite but with a porous defense reinforces this bet.

1.44

Confidence

High (65 %)

Market signals on Toluca vs Leon

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Toluca vs Leon Statistics

History

1 Home / 2 Away

Win

	Toluca	Leon
Win	3 3 4	6 4
Win Draw Lose

When Favorite

	1	2
Did not lose by being a favorite	60%	71%
Victory by being rated between 1.00 and 1.20	100%	0%
Victory by being rated between 1.21 and 1.50	0%	0%
Victory by being rated between 1.51 and 1.80	0%	50%
Victory by being rated between 1.81 and above	25%	80%
Win by being a favorite	30%	71%

When Outsider

	1	2
Did not lose by being an outsider	0%	33%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.8 and above	0%	33%
Win by being an outsider	0%	33%

Clean sheet

	1	2
Clean sheet	20% 80%	20% 80%
Yes No

Both teams score

	1	2
Both teams score	70% 30%	60% 70%
Yes No

Half-time

	1	2
Draw at halftime	40% 60%	30% 70%
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team	60% 40%	60% 40%
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game	70% 30%	90% 10%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team	10% 90%	30% 70%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game	20% 80%	60% 40%
Leading at half-time	50% 50%	30% 70%
More goals Under goals

Half with most goals

	1	2
1st half	0%	40%
2nd half	90%	30%

Goals Over/Under

	1	2
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game	100%	100%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game	90% 10%	90% 10%
Goals Over/Under 2.5 per game	60% 40%	80% 20%
Goals Over/Under 3.5 per game	40% 60%	40% 60%
Goals Over/Under 4.5 per game	30% 70%	30% 70%
More goals Under goals

Goals Over/Under (by team)

	1	2
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team	90% 10%	80% 20%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team	50% 50%	70% 30%
Goals Over/Under 2.5 by team	40% 60%	10% 90%
Goals Over/Under 3.5 by team	20% 80%	100%
Goals Over/Under 4.5 by team	100%	100%
More goals Under goals

% of matches in which a player has scored

	1	2
Nicolas Castro	30% (3/10)	50% (5/10)	Diber Cambindo
Paulinho	50% (3/6)	30% (3/10)	Ismael Diaz
Everardo Lopez	22% (2/9)	20% (2/10)	Fernando Beltran
Jorge Diaz	13% (1/8)	20% (2/10)	Daniel Arcila
Jesus Angulo	10% (1/10)	13% (1/8)	Juan Dominguez
Antonio Briseno	11% (1/9)	13% (1/8)	Miguel Rodriguez
Francisco Cordova	10% (1/10)
Helinho	17% (1/6)
Jesus Gallardo	20% (1/5)
Fernando Arce	10% (1/10)
Franco Rossi	10% (1/10)

Total goals per player

	1	2
Paulinho	⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽7	⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽5	Diber Cambindo
Nicolas Castro	⚽⚽⚽3	⚽⚽⚽⚽4	Ismael Diaz
Everardo Lopez	⚽⚽2	⚽⚽2	Fernando Beltran
Francisco Cordova	⚽1	⚽⚽2	Daniel Arcila
Jesus Gallardo	⚽1	⚽1	Miguel Rodriguez
Jorge Diaz	⚽1	⚽1	Juan Dominguez
Jesus Angulo	⚽1
Helinho	⚽1
Antonio Briseno	⚽1
Fernando Arce	⚽1
Franco Rossi	⚽1

Over corners (per game)

	1	2
Over corners 6.5	80%	100%
Over corners 7.5	80%	90%
Over corners 8.5	80%	70%
Over corners 9.5	80%	70%
Over corners 10.5	30%	70%
Over corners 11.5	20%	50%
Over corners 12.5	10%	30%

Over corners (per team)

	1	2
Over corners 2.5	50%	70%
Over corners 3.5	40%	60%
Over corners 4.5	40%	50%
Over corners 5.5	30%	50%
Over corners 6.5	30%	40%

Over X yellow cards (per team)

	1	2
0.5	100%	90%
1.5	60%	70%
2.5	40%	10%
3.5	10%	10%
4.5	0%	10%
5.5	0%	0%

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