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Manchester City - Newcastle United: our prediction

04/02/2026•21:00

Manchester City

3:1

(3:0)

Finished

Newcastle United

Manchester City vs Newcastle United Preview — EFL Cup

Manchester City, clear favorite, hosts Newcastle in the EFL Cup. City, solid at home but in mixed form (4W, 4D, 2L in 10), faces a Newcastle side very weak away from home (0W in 10). Recent statistics lean towards a match under 2.5 goals and the possibility of both teams scoring.

Our Manchester City vs Newcastle United predictions

Manchester City Win

Manchester City is the clear favorite (odds 1.76) and plays at home. Despite recent mixed form (4 wins in 10 matches), its favorite status is solid (lost only 2 times out of 10 as a favorite). Newcastle is extremely weak away from home (0 wins in 10 away matches). Technical superiority and home advantage should allow City to win.

1.86

Confidence

High

Manchester City scores at least 1 goal

Manchester City has scored at least one goal in 80% of its last 10 matches (8/10 for the 'parou05' indicator). At home, their offensive power should come through against a Newcastle defense that has kept a clean sheet in only 30% of its last 10 matches (3 clean sheets). City's offensive depth (with scorers like Haaland, Cherki, Semenyo) makes this scenario very likely.

1.13

Confidence

High

Under 2.5 goals in the match

Recent statistics from both teams indicate a trend towards low-scoring matches. Manchester City has seen under 2.5 goals in 70% of its last 10 matches (7/10). Newcastle has a rate of 50% (5/10). Moreover, over 2.5 goals is successful only 30% of the time for City and 50% for Newcastle. A cautious tactical approach, especially from Newcastle away, could limit the number of goals.

2.3

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Manchester City vs Newcastle United

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Manchester City vs Newcastle United Statistics

History

1 Home / 2 Away

Win

	Manchester City	Newcastle United
Win	4 4 2	4 3 3
Win Draw Lose

When Favorite

	1	2
Did not lose by being a favorite	80%	86%
Victory by being rated between 1.00 and 1.20	100%	0%
Victory by being rated between 1.21 and 1.50	20%	100%
Victory by being rated between 1.51 and 1.80	0%	50%
Victory by being rated between 1.81 and above	50%	0%
Win by being a favorite	40%	57%

When Outsider

	1	2
Did not lose by being an outsider	0%	33%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.8 and above	0%	0%
Win by being an outsider	0%	0%

Clean sheet

	1	2
Clean sheet	40% 60%	30% 70%
Yes No

Both teams score

	1	2
Both teams score	50% 50%	50% 50%
Yes No

Half-time

	1	2
Draw at halftime	30% 70%	50% 50%
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team	60% 40%	50% 50%
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game	70% 30%	60% 40%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team	40% 60%	20% 80%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game	50% 50%	50% 50%
Leading at half-time	60% 40%	20% 80%
More goals Under goals

Half with most goals

	1	2
1st half	20%	40%
2nd half	30%	40%

Goals Over/Under

	1	2
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game	90% 10%	90% 10%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game	90% 10%	90% 10%
Goals Over/Under 2.5 per game	30% 70%	50% 50%
Goals Over/Under 3.5 per game	30% 70%	40% 60%
Goals Over/Under 4.5 per game	10% 90%	20% 80%
More goals Under goals

Goals Over/Under (by team)

	1	2
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team	80% 20%	70% 30%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team	50% 50%	50% 50%
Goals Over/Under 2.5 by team	10% 90%	30% 70%
Goals Over/Under 3.5 by team	10% 90%	10% 90%
Goals Over/Under 4.5 by team	10% 90%	100%
More goals Under goals

% of matches in which a player has scored

	1	2
Erling Haaland	56% (5/9)	40% (4/10)	William Osula
Jeremy Doku	40% (4/10)	20% (2/10)	Harvey Barnes
Antoine Semenyo	33% (3/9)	22% (2/9)	Anthony Gordon
Omar Marmoush	20% (2/10)	10% (1/10)	Nick Woltemade
Marc Guehi	11% (1/9)	10% (1/10)	Daniel Burn
Nico Gonzalez	14% (1/7)	10% (1/10)	Anthony Elanga
Rayan Cherki	10% (1/10)
Savinho	10% (1/10)
Nico O'Reilly	13% (1/8)

Total goals per player

	1	2
Jeremy Doku	⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽5	⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽5	William Osula
Erling Haaland	⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽5	⚽⚽2	Anthony Elanga
Antoine Semenyo	⚽⚽⚽3	⚽⚽2	Harvey Barnes
Omar Marmoush	⚽⚽2	⚽⚽2	Anthony Gordon
Rayan Cherki	⚽1	⚽1	Daniel Burn
Savinho	⚽1	⚽1	Nick Woltemade
Marc Guehi	⚽1
Nico Gonzalez	⚽1
Nico O'Reilly	⚽1

Over corners (per game)

	1	2
Over corners 6.5	100%	80%
Over corners 7.5	80%	70%
Over corners 8.5	50%	70%
Over corners 9.5	50%	70%
Over corners 10.5	20%	70%
Over corners 11.5	0%	40%
Over corners 12.5	0%	30%

Over corners (per team)

	1	2
Over corners 2.5	90%	80%
Over corners 3.5	90%	70%
Over corners 4.5	60%	60%
Over corners 5.5	50%	50%
Over corners 6.5	20%	40%

Over X yellow cards (per team)

	1	2
0.5	80%	90%
1.5	60%	50%
2.5	40%	30%
3.5	10%	10%
4.5	0%	0%
5.5	0%	0%

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