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AZ Alkmaar - Ajax: our prediction

14/01/2026•21:00

AZ Alkmaar

6:0

(3:0)

Finished

Ajax

AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax Preview — KNVB Cup

In the round of 16 of the KNVB Cup, AZ Alkmaar hosts Ajax at home. AZ is a slight favorite according to bookmakers, but Ajax is in solid form with 70% wins in the last 10 matches. An open match with goals is expected.

Our AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax predictions

Over 2.5 goals

The offensive statistics of both teams are convincing: AZ exceeded 2.5 goals in 60% of its last 10 matches, Ajax in 70%. The attacking tendency and sometimes fragile defenses suggest a match with at least 3 goals.

1.45

Confidence

High

Both teams to score

AZ scored in 80% of recent matches, Ajax in 90%. Both teams have capable attacks, and defenses have shown weaknesses (clean sheet only 40% for AZ, 30% for Ajax). A goal each is plausible.

1.44

Confidence

Medium

AZ Alkmaar to win

AZ Alkmaar plays at home and is the bookmakers' favorite with odds of 2.15. In the last 10 matches, they have won 4 times (40%). Against an in-form Ajax, home advantage could be decisive. No information on major absences was found.

1.85

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax Statistics

History

1 Home / 2 Away

Win

	AZ Alkmaar	Ajax
Win	4 2 4	7 1 2
Win Draw Lose

When Favorite

	1	2
Did not lose by being a favorite	86%	83%
Victory by being rated between 1.00 and 1.20	100%	100%
Victory by being rated between 1.21 and 1.50	33%	0%
Victory by being rated between 1.51 and 1.80	100%	0%
Victory by being rated between 1.81 and above	0%	100%
Win by being a favorite	57%	83%

When Outsider

	1	2
Did not lose by being an outsider	0%	67%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.8 and above	0%	25%
Win by being an outsider	0%	25%

Clean sheet

	1	2
Clean sheet	40% 60%	30% 70%
Yes No

Both teams score

	1	2
Both teams score	50% 50%	60% 50%
Yes No

Half-time

	1	2
Draw at halftime	40% 60%	20% 80%
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team	50% 50%	80% 20%
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game	70% 30%	100%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team	20% 80%	40% 60%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game	40% 60%	60% 40%
Leading at half-time	30% 70%	60% 40%
More goals Under goals

Half with most goals

	1	2
1st half	40%	10%
2nd half	40%	40%

Goals Over/Under

	1	2
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game	90% 10%	100%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game	70% 30%	100%
Goals Over/Under 2.5 per game	60% 40%	70% 30%
Goals Over/Under 3.5 per game	50% 50%	60% 40%
Goals Over/Under 4.5 per game	20% 80%	30% 70%
More goals Under goals

Goals Over/Under (by team)

	1	2
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team	80% 20%	90% 10%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team	50% 50%	80% 20%
Goals Over/Under 2.5 by team	30% 70%	50% 50%
Goals Over/Under 3.5 by team	100%	30% 70%
Goals Over/Under 4.5 by team	100%	10% 90%
More goals Under goals

% of matches in which a player has scored

	1	2
Sven Mijnans	40% (4/10)	50% (5/10)	Mika Godts
Troy Parrott	33% (3/9)	38% (3/8)	Wout Weghorst
Peer Koopmeiners	40% (2/5)	50% (3/6)	Davy Klaassen
Mexx Meerdink	20% (2/10)	20% (2/10)	Anton Gaaei
Mees de Wit	13% (1/8)	20% (2/10)	Steven Berghuis
Matej Sin	11% (1/9)	10% (1/10)	Oscar Gloukh
Jordy Clasie	14% (1/7)	10% (1/10)	Sean Steur
Mateo Chavez	11% (1/9)	10% (1/10)	Jorthy Mokio
Kees Smit	13% (1/8)
Isak Steiner Jensen	11% (1/9)

Total goals per player

	1	2
Sven Mijnans	⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽5	⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽5	Mika Godts
Troy Parrott	⚽⚽⚽3	⚽⚽⚽3	Wout Weghorst
Peer Koopmeiners	⚽⚽2	⚽⚽⚽3	Steven Berghuis
Mexx Meerdink	⚽⚽2	⚽⚽⚽3	Davy Klaassen
Kees Smit	⚽1	⚽⚽2	Anton Gaaei
Jordy Clasie	⚽1	⚽1	Sean Steur
Mateo Chavez	⚽1	⚽1	Jorthy Mokio
Matej Sin	⚽1	⚽1	Oscar Gloukh
Mees de Wit	⚽1
Isak Steiner Jensen	⚽1

Over corners (per game)

	1	2
Over corners 6.5	80%	90%
Over corners 7.5	80%	90%
Over corners 8.5	80%	60%
Over corners 9.5	70%	60%
Over corners 10.5	50%	40%
Over corners 11.5	50%	20%
Over corners 12.5	50%	20%

Over corners (per team)

	1	2
Over corners 2.5	90%	80%
Over corners 3.5	80%	50%
Over corners 4.5	70%	40%
Over corners 5.5	60%	40%
Over corners 6.5	50%	30%

Over X yellow cards (per team)

	1	2
0.5	0%	10%
1.5	0%	0%
2.5	0%	0%
3.5	0%	0%
4.5	0%	0%
5.5	0%	0%

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