Deportivo Alaves - Real Sociedad: our prediction
04/02/2026•21:00
Deportivo Alaves
2:3
(2:1)
Finished
Real Sociedad
-
1
-
X
-
2
Deportivo Alaves vs Real Sociedad Preview — Copa del Rey
Real Sociedad, the bookmakers' favorite (odds at 2.45), faces Deportivo Alaves away from home. Over the last 10 matches, Real has a 40% success rate (4W, 4D, 2L) and scores very consistently (90% 'Both Teams to Score'). Alaves, away from home, has won only one of its last 10 matches. Historical statistics suggest a tight match with goals likely from both sides.
Our Deportivo Alaves vs Real Sociedad predictions
Both teams to score
Analysis of the last 10 matches shows Real Sociedad has scored in 90% of its games (9/10). Deportivo Alaves has scored in 70% of its home games (7/10). Real's defense has kept no clean sheets in this period, while Alaves' has kept 3. With these attacking trends and leaky defenses, a goal from each side is the most likely scenario.
1.86
Confidence
High
0.5 (More goals per team) - Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad has scored at least one goal in 90% of its last 10 matches (9/10). Facing an Alaves defense that has conceded at least one goal in 70% of its home games (7/10), the probability of Real finding the back of the net is very high. Its favorite status and consistent offensive statistics strongly support this bet.
1.3
Confidence
High
2.5 (Fewer goals per match)
'Over/Under 2.5' statistics are balanced: Alaves has seen under 2.5 goals in 50% of its last 10 matches (5/10), and Real Sociedad in 40% (4/10). Real has a more prolific attack, but Alaves at home can be defensively solid (3 clean sheets). A 2-goal scenario (1-1 or 2-0) or less is plausible, especially if the match is tight as suggested by the close odds.
1.61
Confidence
Medium
Market signals on Deportivo Alaves vs Real Sociedad
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Deportivo Alaves vs Real Sociedad Statistics
Win
 |  | |
|---|---|---|
Win | 5 1 4 | 4 4 2 |
Win Draw Lose | ||
When Favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Did not lose by being a favorite | 100% | 83% |
Victory by being rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 0% |
Victory by being rated between 1.21 and 1.50 | 0% | 100% |
Victory by being rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 0% | 0% |
Victory by being rated between 1.81 and above | 80% | 50% |
Win by being a favorite | 80% | 50% |
When Outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Did not lose by being an outsider | 20% | 75% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 0% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 0% | 0% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.8 and above | 20% | 25% |
Win by being an outsider | 20% | 25% |
Clean sheet
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Clean sheet | 30% 70% | 100% |
Yes No | ||
Both teams score
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Both teams score | 50% 50% | 90% 50% |
Yes No | ||
Half-time
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Draw at halftime | 70% 30% | 20% 80% |
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team | 30% 70% | 60% 40% |
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game | 40% 60% | 80% 20% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team | 100% | 100% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game | 10% 90% | 10% 90% |
Leading at half-time | 20% 80% | 60% 40% |
More goals Under goals | ||
Half with most goals
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
1st half | 20% | 10% |
2nd half | 80% | 60% |
Goals Over/Under
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game | 100% | 100% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game | 70% 30% | 90% 10% |
Goals Over/Under 2.5 per game | 50% 50% | 60% 40% |
Goals Over/Under 3.5 per game | 10% 90% | 20% 80% |
Goals Over/Under 4.5 per game | 100% | 100% |
More goals Under goals | ||
Goals Over/Under (by team)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team | 80% 20% | 90% 10% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team | 30% 70% | 50% 50% |
Goals Over/Under 2.5 by team | 100% | 10% 90% |
Goals Over/Under 3.5 by team | 100% | 100% |
Goals Over/Under 4.5 by team | 100% | 100% |
More goals Under goals | ||
% of matches in which a player has scored
| 1 | 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Martinez | 70% (7/10) | 56% (5/9) | Orri Oskarsson |
| Ibrahim Diabate | 20% (2/10) | 30% (3/10) | Mikel Oyarzabal |
| Lucas Boye | 29% (2/7) | 20% (2/10) | Aihen Munoz |
| Angel Perez | 10% (1/10) | 20% (2/10) | Luka Sucic |
| Antonio Blanco | 10% (1/10) | 22% (2/9) | Jon Martin |
| Abderrahman Rebbach | 11% (1/9) | 10% (1/10) | Brais Mendez |
| Nahuel Tenaglia | 10% (1/10) | 10% (1/10) | Pablo Marin |
13% (1/8) | Ander Barrenetxea | ||
10% (1/10) | Carlos Soler |
Total goals per player
| 1 | 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Martinez | ⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽9 | ⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽5 | Orri Oskarsson |
| Lucas Boye | ⚽⚽2 | ⚽⚽⚽⚽4 | Mikel Oyarzabal |
| Ibrahim Diabate | ⚽⚽2 | ⚽⚽2 | Luka Sucic |
| Abderrahman Rebbach | ⚽1 | ⚽⚽2 | Jon Martin |
| Nahuel Tenaglia | ⚽1 | ⚽⚽2 | Aihen Munoz |
| Angel Perez | ⚽1 | ⚽1 | Brais Mendez |
| Antonio Blanco | ⚽1 | ⚽1 | Carlos Soler |
⚽1 | Pablo Marin | ||
⚽1 | Ander Barrenetxea |
Over corners (per game)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Over corners 6.5 | 80% | 80% |
Over corners 7.5 | 70% | 70% |
Over corners 8.5 | 70% | 70% |
Over corners 9.5 | 50% | 60% |
Over corners 10.5 | 40% | 50% |
Over corners 11.5 | 40% | 40% |
Over corners 12.5 | 20% | 30% |
Over corners (per team)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Over corners 2.5 | 60% | 70% |
Over corners 3.5 | 60% | 60% |
Over corners 4.5 | 60% | 40% |
Over corners 5.5 | 40% | 40% |
Over corners 6.5 | 0% | 20% |
Over X yellow cards (per team)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
0.5 | 60% | 60% |
1.5 | 40% | 40% |
2.5 | 10% | 20% |
3.5 | 0% | 0% |
4.5 | 0% | 0% |
5.5 | 0% | 0% |
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