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Barcelona - Atletico Madrid: our prediction

03/03/2026•21:00

Barcelona

3:0

(2:0)

Finished

Atletico Madrid

Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid Preview — Copa del Rey

Barcelona hosts Atlético Madrid in the Copa del Rey. The Blaugranas are clear favorites (odds 1.46) after 8 wins in their last 10 matches, with a very prolific attack (over 2.5 goals/match at 100%). Atlético, less effective away, shows a more vulnerable defense.

Our Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid predictions

Over 2.5 Goals

The statistics are extremely clear: 100% of Barcelona's last 10 matches exceeded 2.5 goals. Atlético follows with 70%. Barcelona's attack (Lamine Yamal 8 goals, Lewandowski 4) against an Atlético defense that often concedes (7 matches/10 with over 2.5) promises an open match with several goals.

1.23

Confidence

Very high

Barcelona Win

Barcelona displays excellent form with 8 wins/10 (80%). At home, their attack is devastating (100% over 2.5 goals/match). Atlético has only 1 win/10 away and a defense that regularly concedes (60% of matches with goals conceded). The 1.46 odds reflect this statistical dominance.

1.4

Confidence

High

Both Teams to Score

Barcelona conceded at least one goal in 70% of its recent matches (7/10 clean sheet no). Atlético scored in 60% of its matches. With Griezmann and Álvarez in attack, Atlético has the ability to breach a sometimes fragile Barcelona defense. However, Barcelona sometimes keeps a clean sheet (30%), which tempers confidence.

1.36

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid Statistics

History

1 Home / 2 Away

Win

	Barcelona	Atletico Madrid
Win	8 2	5 2 3
Win Draw Lose

When Favorite

	1	2
Did not lose by being a favorite	80%	67%
Victory by being rated between 1.00 and 1.20	100%	0%
Victory by being rated between 1.21 and 1.50	75%	50%
Victory by being rated between 1.51 and 1.80	0%	33%
Victory by being rated between 1.81 and above	0%	50%
Win by being a favorite	80%	44%

When Outsider

	1	2
Did not lose by being an outsider	0%	100%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.8 and above	0%	100%
Win by being an outsider	0%	100%

Clean sheet

	1	2
Clean sheet	30% 70%	40% 60%
Yes No

Both teams score

	1	2
Both teams score	60% 40%	40% 60%
Yes No

Half-time

	1	2
Draw at halftime	30% 70%	50% 50%
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team	60% 40%	60% 40%
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game	80% 20%	80% 20%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team	40% 60%	30% 70%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game	50% 50%	70% 30%
Leading at half-time	50% 50%	30% 70%
More goals Under goals

Half with most goals

	1	2
1st half	40%	50%
2nd half	60%	40%

Goals Over/Under

	1	2
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game	100%	90% 10%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game	100%	70% 30%
Goals Over/Under 2.5 per game	100%	70% 30%
Goals Over/Under 3.5 per game	50% 50%	50% 50%
Goals Over/Under 4.5 per game	30% 70%	40% 60%
More goals Under goals

Goals Over/Under (by team)

	1	2
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team	90% 10%	70% 30%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team	80% 20%	50% 50%
Goals Over/Under 2.5 by team	70% 30%	50% 50%
Goals Over/Under 3.5 by team	30% 70%	40% 60%
Goals Over/Under 4.5 by team	100%	10% 90%
More goals Under goals

% of matches in which a player has scored

	1	2
Ferran Torres	44% (4/9)	38% (3/8)	Ademola Lookman
Marcus Rashford	30% (3/10)	25% (2/8)	Alexander Soerloth
Lamine Yamal	75% (3/4)	50% (2/4)	Nico Gonzalez
Robert Lewandowski	20% (2/10)	50% (2/4)	Julian Alvarez
Raphinha	33% (1/3)	17% (1/6)	Miguel Llorente
Fermin Lopez	13% (1/8)	10% (1/10)	Marc Pubill
Joao Cancelo	10% (1/10)	13% (1/8)	Thiago Almada
		10% (1/10)	Antoine Griezmann
		17% (1/6)	Iker Luque
		11% (1/9)	Alejandro Baena

Total goals per player

	1	2
Ferran Torres	⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽5	⚽⚽⚽3	Alexander Soerloth
Lamine Yamal	⚽⚽⚽3	⚽⚽⚽3	Nico Gonzalez
Marcus Rashford	⚽⚽⚽3	⚽⚽⚽3	Ademola Lookman
Robert Lewandowski	⚽⚽2	⚽⚽2	Julian Alvarez
Raphinha	⚽⚽2	⚽1	Alejandro Baena
Fermin Lopez	⚽1	⚽1	Antoine Griezmann
Joao Cancelo	⚽1	⚽1	Iker Luque
		⚽1	Marc Pubill
		⚽1	Thiago Almada
		⚽1	Miguel Llorente

Over corners (per game)

	1	2
Over corners 6.5	90%	100%
Over corners 7.5	90%	100%
Over corners 8.5	90%	80%
Over corners 9.5	70%	70%
Over corners 10.5	50%	50%
Over corners 11.5	30%	30%
Over corners 12.5	30%	20%

Over corners (per team)

	1	2
Over corners 2.5	100%	90%
Over corners 3.5	90%	80%
Over corners 4.5	80%	80%
Over corners 5.5	80%	50%
Over corners 6.5	70%	40%

Over X yellow cards (per team)

	1	2
0.5	90%	80%
1.5	40%	60%
2.5	20%	30%
3.5	0%	10%
4.5	0%	10%
5.5	0%	0%

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