Luton Town - Northampton Town: our prediction
04/03/2026•20:30
Luton Town
2:1
(0:1)
Finished
Northampton Town
-
1
-
X
-
2
Luton Town vs Northampton Town Preview — EFL Trophy Final Stage
Luton Town, favored at home, faces Northampton Town in the EFL Trophy. Recent statistics show a Luton team struggling (3 wins, 5 defeats in 10 matches) but benefiting from home advantage. Northampton has a more balanced form but is less effective away. Both teams have leaky defenses, suggesting an open match with scoring opportunities.
Our Luton Town vs Northampton Town predictions
Luton Town Win
Luton Town is clearly favored by bookmakers (odds at 1.53). Although their recent form is mixed (3W, 2D, 5L in 10 matches), they are playing at home and have a statistical advantage. In their last 7 matches as favorites, they have lost only once. Northampton, on the other hand, struggles away (only 2 wins in their last 10 away matches). The home advantage and favorite status should make the difference.
1.53
Confidence
High
Both Teams to Score
The defensive statistics of both teams support 'Both Teams to Score'. Luton Town has kept a clean sheet in only 10% of their last 10 matches (1 clean sheet). Northampton Town did barely better (also 1 clean sheet). Conversely, Luton has scored in 70% of their recent matches, Northampton in 60%. With in-form attackers like Tom Eaves (5 goals in 10 matches) for Northampton and Jordan Clark/Nahki Wells (3 goals each) for Luton, goals should come from both sides.
1.75
Confidence
High
Over 2.5 Goals in the Match
Analysis of the last 10 matches shows offensive potential but irregular execution. For Luton, 40% of their recent matches had over 2.5 goals. For Northampton, this rate is 60%. The combined trend and defensive weaknesses suggest a match with at least 2 or 3 goals. The 'Over 2.5' bet is supported by the fact that both teams often score (50% for Luton, 60% for Northampton in the last 10), but confidence is moderate because Luton has also had several low-scoring matches.
1.7
Confidence
Medium
Market signals on Luton Town vs Northampton Town
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Luton Town vs Northampton Town Statistics
Win
 |  | |
|---|---|---|
Win | 3 3 4 | 2 3 5 |
Win Draw Lose | ||
When Favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Did not lose by being a favorite | 86% | 0% |
Victory by being rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 0% |
Victory by being rated between 1.21 and 1.50 | 0% | 0% |
Victory by being rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 50% | 0% |
Victory by being rated between 1.81 and above | 40% | 0% |
Win by being a favorite | 43% | 0% |
When Outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Did not lose by being an outsider | 0% | 56% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 0% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 0% | 0% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.8 and above | 0% | 22% |
Win by being an outsider | 0% | 22% |
Clean sheet
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Clean sheet | 10% 90% | 10% 90% |
Yes No | ||
Both teams score
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Both teams score | 60% 40% | 60% 60% |
Yes No | ||
Half-time
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Draw at halftime | 50% 50% | 30% 70% |
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team | 60% 40% | 50% 50% |
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game | 70% 30% | 80% 20% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team | 10% 90% | 10% 90% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game | 30% 70% | 20% 80% |
Leading at half-time | 30% 70% | 40% 60% |
More goals Under goals | ||
Half with most goals
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
1st half | 40% | 20% |
2nd half | 50% | 50% |
Goals Over/Under
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game | 100% | 90% 10% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game | 60% 40% | 80% 20% |
Goals Over/Under 2.5 per game | 40% 60% | 60% 40% |
Goals Over/Under 3.5 per game | 20% 80% | 30% 70% |
Goals Over/Under 4.5 per game | 100% | 100% |
More goals Under goals | ||
Goals Over/Under (by team)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team | 70% 30% | 60% 40% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team | 30% 70% | 30% 70% |
Goals Over/Under 2.5 by team | 100% | 10% 90% |
Goals Over/Under 3.5 by team | 100% | 100% |
Goals Over/Under 4.5 by team | 100% | 100% |
More goals Under goals | ||
% of matches in which a player has scored
| 1 | 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Kasey Palmer | 50% (5/10) | 30% (3/10) | Cameron McGeehan |
| Jordan Clark | 43% (3/7) | 22% (2/9) | Jake Evans |
| Nahki Wells | 25% (2/8) | 20% (1/5) | Elliott List |
| Hakeem Odoffin | 22% (2/9) | 10% (1/10) | Michael Jacobs |
| Jake Richards | 20% (2/10) | 10% (1/10) | Sam Hoskins |
| Shayden Morris | 20% (2/10) | ||
| Emilio Lawrence | 20% (2/10) | ||
| Ali Al Hamadi | 13% (1/8) | ||
| Kal Naismith | 10% (1/10) | ||
| Liam Walsh | 11% (1/9) |
Total goals per player
| 1 | 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Kasey Palmer | ⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽6 | ⚽⚽⚽3 | Cameron McGeehan |
| Nahki Wells | ⚽⚽⚽3 | ⚽⚽2 | Jake Evans |
| Jordan Clark | ⚽⚽⚽3 | ⚽1 | Sam Hoskins |
| Shayden Morris | ⚽⚽2 | ⚽1 | Michael Jacobs |
| Emilio Lawrence | ⚽⚽2 | ⚽1 | Elliott List |
| Hakeem Odoffin | ⚽⚽2 | ||
| Jake Richards | ⚽⚽2 | ||
| Ali Al Hamadi | ⚽1 | ||
| Liam Walsh | ⚽1 | ||
| Kal Naismith | ⚽1 |
Over corners (per game)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Over corners 6.5 | 100% | 100% |
Over corners 7.5 | 90% | 70% |
Over corners 8.5 | 80% | 70% |
Over corners 9.5 | 80% | 60% |
Over corners 10.5 | 50% | 50% |
Over corners 11.5 | 30% | 40% |
Over corners 12.5 | 20% | 20% |
Over corners (per team)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Over corners 2.5 | 80% | 70% |
Over corners 3.5 | 70% | 70% |
Over corners 4.5 | 60% | 60% |
Over corners 5.5 | 30% | 50% |
Over corners 6.5 | 20% | 40% |
Over X yellow cards (per team)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
0.5 | 90% | 90% |
1.5 | 60% | 30% |
2.5 | 20% | 10% |
3.5 | 0% | 10% |
4.5 | 0% | 0% |
5.5 | 0% | 0% |
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