Tottenham Hotspur - Atletico Madrid: our prediction
18/03/2026•21:00
Tottenham Hotspur
3:2
(1:0)
Finished
Atletico Madrid
-
1
-
X
-
2
Tottenham Hotspur vs Atletico Madrid Preview — Champions League Final Stage
Tottenham Hotspur hosts Atlético Madrid in the Champions League. Recent statistics show Atlético's strong form as the bookmakers' favorite against a struggling Tottenham, especially at home. A tight match with offensive stakes is expected.
Our Tottenham Hotspur vs Atletico Madrid predictions
Atlético Madrid Victory
Atlético Madrid is the bookmakers' favorite (odds at 2.5). In the last 10 matches, they have won 7 times (70%) against only 1 for Tottenham (10%). Tottenham has lost 6 of its last 10 matches (60%) and has not won any match as an outsider (0/7). Atlético shows much better form and great efficiency as the favored team (6 wins in 8 matches where they were favorites).
2.71
Confidence
High
Both Teams to Score
Tottenham has seen both teams score in 8 of its last 10 matches (80%). Their defense is fragile (only 1 clean sheet). Atlético has seen both teams score in 5 of its last 10 matches (50%). Although more solid defensively (3 clean sheets), they face a Tottenham capable of scoring at home. The offensive statistics of both teams (Tottenham: Solanke, Kolo Muani; Atlético: Álvarez, Lookman) support this scenario.
1.57
Confidence
High
Over 2.5 Goals in the Match
The statistics of the last 10 matches are favorable: 70% of Tottenham's matches (7/10) and 80% of Atlético's matches (8/10) saw over 2.5 goals. Atlético is particularly offensive with over 2.5 goals per team in 6 of its last 10 matches. Tottenham's tendency for 'Both Teams to Score' and Atlético's offensive efficiency could lead to a match with 3 goals or more. However, the Champions League stakes might encourage some caution at the start of the match.
1.67
Confidence
Medium
Market signals on Tottenham Hotspur vs Atletico Madrid
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Tottenham Hotspur vs Atletico Madrid Statistics
Win
 |  | |
|---|---|---|
Win | 1 3 6 | 7 1 2 |
Win Draw Lose | ||
When Favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Did not lose by being a favorite | 67% | 88% |
Victory by being rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 0% |
Victory by being rated between 1.21 and 1.50 | 0% | 100% |
Victory by being rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 100% | 80% |
Victory by being rated between 1.81 and above | 0% | 0% |
Win by being a favorite | 33% | 75% |
When Outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Did not lose by being an outsider | 29% | 50% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 0% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 0% | 0% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.8 and above | 0% | 50% |
Win by being an outsider | 0% | 50% |
Clean sheet
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Clean sheet | 10% 90% | 30% 70% |
Yes No | ||
Both teams score
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Both teams score | 80% 20% | 50% 80% |
Yes No | ||
Half-time
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Draw at halftime | 30% 70% | 40% 60% |
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team | 40% 60% | 70% 30% |
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game | 90% 10% | 90% 10% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team | 100% | 30% 70% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game | 60% 40% | 80% 20% |
Leading at half-time | 100% | 40% 60% |
More goals Under goals | ||
Half with most goals
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
1st half | 30% | 50% |
2nd half | 30% | 50% |
Goals Over/Under
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game | 100% | 100% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game | 100% | 80% 20% |
Goals Over/Under 2.5 per game | 70% 30% | 80% 20% |
Goals Over/Under 3.5 per game | 50% 50% | 60% 40% |
Goals Over/Under 4.5 per game | 20% 80% | 50% 50% |
More goals Under goals | ||
Goals Over/Under (by team)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team | 90% 10% | 80% 20% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team | 40% 60% | 60% 40% |
Goals Over/Under 2.5 by team | 100% | 60% 40% |
Goals Over/Under 3.5 by team | 100% | 40% 60% |
Goals Over/Under 4.5 by team | 100% | 10% 90% |
More goals Under goals | ||
% of matches in which a player has scored
| 1 | 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Richarlison | 33% (3/9) | 38% (3/8) | Ademola Lookman |
| Joao Palhinha | 25% (2/8) | 25% (2/8) | Alexander Soerloth |
| Xavi Simons | 33% (2/6) | 50% (2/4) | Julian Alvarez |
| Pedro Porro | 10% (1/10) | 50% (2/4) | Nico Gonzalez |
| Mathys Tel | 10% (1/10) | 13% (1/8) | Thiago Almada |
| Randal Kolo Muani | 10% (1/10) | 10% (1/10) | Antoine Griezmann |
| Conor Gallagher | 11% (1/9) | 10% (1/10) | Marc Pubill |
11% (1/9) | Alejandro Baena | ||
17% (1/6) | Iker Luque | ||
17% (1/6) | Miguel Llorente |
Total goals per player
| 1 | 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Xavi Simons | ⚽⚽⚽3 | ⚽⚽⚽3 | Alexander Soerloth |
| Richarlison | ⚽⚽⚽3 | ⚽⚽⚽3 | Nico Gonzalez |
| Joao Palhinha | ⚽⚽2 | ⚽⚽⚽3 | Ademola Lookman |
| Mathys Tel | ⚽1 | ⚽⚽2 | Julian Alvarez |
| Pedro Porro | ⚽1 | ⚽1 | Thiago Almada |
| Randal Kolo Muani | ⚽1 | ⚽1 | Miguel Llorente |
| Conor Gallagher | ⚽1 | ⚽1 | Alejandro Baena |
⚽1 | Antoine Griezmann | ||
⚽1 | Iker Luque | ||
⚽1 | Marc Pubill |
Over corners (per game)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Over corners 6.5 | 70% | 90% |
Over corners 7.5 | 30% | 90% |
Over corners 8.5 | 30% | 80% |
Over corners 9.5 | 20% | 60% |
Over corners 10.5 | 20% | 50% |
Over corners 11.5 | 20% | 40% |
Over corners 12.5 | 20% | 30% |
Over corners (per team)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Over corners 2.5 | 60% | 80% |
Over corners 3.5 | 40% | 70% |
Over corners 4.5 | 30% | 60% |
Over corners 5.5 | 20% | 40% |
Over corners 6.5 | 10% | 30% |
Over X yellow cards (per team)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
0.5 | 90% | 80% |
1.5 | 80% | 50% |
2.5 | 50% | 30% |
3.5 | 10% | 10% |
4.5 | 10% | 10% |
5.5 | 0% | 0% |
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