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Atletico Madrid - Barcelona: our prediction

14/04/2026•21:00

Atletico Madrid

1:2

(1:2)

Finished

Barcelona

Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona Preview — Champions League Final Stage

High-level clash in the Champions League between Atlético Madrid at home and Barcelona, the bookmakers' favorite. Recent statistics show Barcelona's clear superiority with 8 wins in the last 10 matches, compared to 5 for Atlético. Both teams score regularly (60% of matches) and encounters are often high-scoring.

Our Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona predictions

Barcelona Win

Barcelona displays impressive form with 8 wins in their last 10 matches (80% success rate), compared to only 1 defeat. The team is designated as favorite by bookmakers (odds at 1.8). Atlético, although solid at home (5 wins/10), has a less reliable defense (only 3 clean sheets in 10). Barcelona's offensive superiority, with in-form scorers like Lamine Yamal (7 goals), should make the difference.

1.75

Confidence

High

Both Teams to Score

Statistics from the last 10 matches show both teams score in 60% of encounters for each side. Atlético has scored at least one goal in 9 of their last 10 matches (90%), Barcelona in 9/10 as well. Defenses are not impenetrable (3 clean sheets each in 10). With quality attacks on both sides (Alvarez 4 goals for Atlético, Yamal 7 for Barça), this scenario is very likely.

1.37

Confidence

High

Over 2.5 Goals

Atlético has seen over 2.5 goals in 70% of their last 10 home matches, Barcelona in 60% of their away matches. Both teams have performing attacks and defenses that concede regularly. The combined probability and high stakes of this Champions League final stage match could favor an open game with several goals. However, the tactical nature of both teams can sometimes limit the number of goals.

1.33

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona Statistics

History

1 Home / 2 Away

Win

	Atletico Madrid	Barcelona
Win	5 5	8 1 1
Win Draw Lose

When Favorite

	1	2
Did not lose by being a favorite	100%	90%
Victory by being rated between 1.00 and 1.20	0%	100%
Victory by being rated between 1.21 and 1.50	0%	83%
Victory by being rated between 1.51 and 1.80	100%	100%
Victory by being rated between 1.81 and above	0%	50%
Win by being a favorite	100%	80%

When Outsider

	1	2
Did not lose by being an outsider	17%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.8 and above	17%	0%
Win by being an outsider	17%	0%

Clean sheet

	1	2
Clean sheet	30% 70%	30% 70%
Yes No

Both teams score

	1	2
Both teams score	60% 40%	60% 60%
Yes No

Half-time

	1	2
Draw at halftime	30% 70%	30% 70%
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team	70% 30%	70% 30%
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game	90% 10%	80% 20%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team	10% 90%	50% 50%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game	50% 50%	60% 40%
Leading at half-time	40% 60%	60% 40%
More goals Under goals

Half with most goals

	1	2
1st half	50%	50%
2nd half	40%	40%

Goals Over/Under

	1	2
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game	100%	100%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game	80% 20%	80% 20%
Goals Over/Under 2.5 per game	70% 30%	60% 40%
Goals Over/Under 3.5 per game	40% 60%	40% 60%
Goals Over/Under 4.5 per game	40% 60%	40% 60%
More goals Under goals

Goals Over/Under (by team)

	1	2
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team	90% 10%	90% 10%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team	50% 50%	60% 40%
Goals Over/Under 2.5 by team	20% 80%	50% 50%
Goals Over/Under 3.5 by team	10% 90%	40% 60%
Goals Over/Under 4.5 by team	10% 90%	20% 80%
More goals Under goals

% of matches in which a player has scored

	1	2
Ademola Lookman	38% (3/8)	44% (4/9)	Ferran Torres
Nico Gonzalez	50% (2/4)	75% (3/4)	Lamine Yamal
Julian Alvarez	50% (2/4)	30% (3/10)	Marcus Rashford
Alexander Soerloth	25% (2/8)	20% (2/10)	Robert Lewandowski
Marc Pubill	10% (1/10)	33% (1/3)	Raphinha
Iker Luque	17% (1/6)	13% (1/8)	Fermin Lopez
Thiago Almada	13% (1/8)	10% (1/10)	Joao Cancelo
Miguel Llorente	17% (1/6)
Alejandro Baena	11% (1/9)
Antoine Griezmann	10% (1/10)

Total goals per player

	1	2
Alexander Soerloth	⚽⚽⚽3	⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽5	Ferran Torres
Nico Gonzalez	⚽⚽⚽3	⚽⚽⚽3	Lamine Yamal
Ademola Lookman	⚽⚽⚽3	⚽⚽⚽3	Marcus Rashford
Julian Alvarez	⚽⚽2	⚽⚽2	Robert Lewandowski
Alejandro Baena	⚽1	⚽⚽2	Raphinha
Antoine Griezmann	⚽1	⚽1	Fermin Lopez
Iker Luque	⚽1	⚽1	Joao Cancelo
Marc Pubill	⚽1
Thiago Almada	⚽1
Miguel Llorente	⚽1

Over corners (per game)

	1	2
Over corners 6.5	80%	80%
Over corners 7.5	80%	70%
Over corners 8.5	70%	50%
Over corners 9.5	60%	50%
Over corners 10.5	50%	40%
Over corners 11.5	40%	40%
Over corners 12.5	30%	30%

Over corners (per team)

	1	2
Over corners 2.5	60%	100%
Over corners 3.5	50%	80%
Over corners 4.5	40%	60%
Over corners 5.5	40%	60%
Over corners 6.5	30%	40%

Over X yellow cards (per team)

	1	2
0.5	90%	90%
1.5	70%	60%
2.5	60%	60%
3.5	30%	0%
4.5	10%	0%
5.5	10%	0%

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