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Arsenal - Atletico Madrid: our prediction

05/05/2026•21:00

Arsenal

1:0

(1:0)

Finished

Atletico Madrid

Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid Preview — Champions League Final Stage

Arsenal, home favorite, faces Atlético Madrid in a Champions League final. The Gunners have a 40% win rate in their last 10 games, while Atlético has an 80% rate for 'Both teams to score' and 70% for 'Over 2.5 goals'. Arsenal shows a solid defense with 50% clean sheets, but Atlético's attack is prolific.

Our Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid predictions

Both teams to score

Atlético Madrid has seen both teams score in 80% of their last 10 matches, while Arsenal has a 40% rate. However, the final and Arsenal's defensive solidity (50% clean sheets) could limit chances. Atlético's offensive trend and the need for goals from both sides make this bet likely.

1.84

Confidence

High (65 %)

2.5 (Over goals per match)

Atlético Madrid has seen over 2.5 goals in 70% of their last 10 matches, a strong trend. Arsenal is more measured at 40%. Combined with the fact that both teams should score (BTS), a total of over 2.5 goals is a very plausible scenario in a final that could be open.

1.87

Confidence

High (65 %)

Win

Arsenal is the home favorite with odds of 1.62, but their win rate is only 40% in the last 10 matches. Atlético Madrid is strong away. Arsenal's victory is possible but far from certain, hence a medium confidence level. The bet relies on home advantage and favorite status.

1.62

Confidence

Medium (50 %)

Market signals on Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid Statistics

History

1 Home / 2 Away

Win

	Arsenal	Atletico Madrid
Win	4 2 4	3 2 5
Win Draw Lose

When Favorite

	1	2
Did not lose by being a favorite	67%	100%
Victory by being rated between 1.00 and 1.20	0%	0%
Victory by being rated between 1.21 and 1.50	60%	0%
Victory by being rated between 1.51 and 1.80	50%	0%
Victory by being rated between 1.81 and above	0%	100%
Win by being a favorite	44%	50%

When Outsider

	1	2
Did not lose by being an outsider	0%	38%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.8 and above	0%	25%
Win by being an outsider	0%	25%

Clean sheet

	1	2
Clean sheet	50% 50%	20% 80%
Yes No

Both teams score

	1	2
Both teams score	40% 60%	80% 40%
Yes No

Half-time

	1	2
Draw at halftime	50% 50%	30% 70%
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team	60% 40%	70% 30%
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game	70% 30%	90% 10%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team	10% 90%	10% 90%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game	30% 70%	50% 50%
Leading at half-time	40% 60%	20% 80%
More goals Under goals

Half with most goals

	1	2
1st half	40%	50%
2nd half	30%	30%

Goals Over/Under

	1	2
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game	90% 10%	100%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game	70% 30%	100%
Goals Over/Under 2.5 per game	40% 60%	70% 30%
Goals Over/Under 3.5 per game	100%	40% 60%
Goals Over/Under 4.5 per game	100%	30% 70%
More goals Under goals

Goals Over/Under (by team)

	1	2
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team	80% 20%	100%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team	20% 80%	60% 40%
Goals Over/Under 2.5 by team	10% 90%	10% 90%
Goals Over/Under 3.5 by team	100%	100%
Goals Over/Under 4.5 by team	100%	100%
More goals Under goals

% of matches in which a player has scored

	1	2
Viktor Gyoekeres	40% (4/10)	38% (3/8)	Julian Alvarez
Kai Havertz	25% (2/8)	25% (2/8)	Alexander Soerloth
Bukayo Saka	29% (2/7)	25% (2/8)	Ademola Lookman
Eberechi Eze	14% (1/7)	33% (2/6)	Nico Gonzalez
		10% (1/10)	Antoine Griezmann
		11% (1/9)	Giuliano Simeone
		50% (1/2)	Iker Luque
		10% (1/10)	Alejandro Baena
		50% (1/2)	Miguel Llorente
		11% (1/9)	Javier Bonar
		11% (1/9)	Thiago Almada

Total goals per player

	1	2
Viktor Gyoekeres	⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽5	⚽⚽⚽3	Alexander Soerloth
Kai Havertz	⚽⚽2	⚽⚽⚽3	Nico Gonzalez
Bukayo Saka	⚽⚽2	⚽⚽⚽3	Julian Alvarez
Eberechi Eze	⚽1	⚽⚽2	Ademola Lookman
		⚽1	Giuliano Simeone
		⚽1	Thiago Almada
		⚽1	Miguel Llorente
		⚽1	Javier Bonar
		⚽1	Antoine Griezmann
		⚽1	Iker Luque
		⚽1	Alejandro Baena

Over corners (per game)

	1	2
Over corners 6.5	90%	80%
Over corners 7.5	60%	60%
Over corners 8.5	60%	40%
Over corners 9.5	50%	40%
Over corners 10.5	50%	30%
Over corners 11.5	30%	20%
Over corners 12.5	30%	10%

Over corners (per team)

	1	2
Over corners 2.5	90%	60%
Over corners 3.5	70%	40%
Over corners 4.5	60%	40%
Over corners 5.5	50%	30%
Over corners 6.5	50%	10%

Over X yellow cards (per team)

	1	2
0.5	60%	80%
1.5	30%	70%
2.5	10%	50%
3.5	0%	30%
4.5	0%	10%
5.5	0%	10%

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