Freiburg - Aston Villa: our prediction
20/05/2026•21:00
Freiburg
0:3
(0:2)
Finished
Aston Villa
-
1
-
X
-
2
Freiburg vs Aston Villa Preview — Europa League Final Stage
Freiburg hosts Aston Villa in the Europa League final. Aston Villa is the favorite with odds of 1.63. Statistics show both teams have a similar win rate (50%), but Aston Villa has better recent form and a more prolific attack led by Ollie Watkins (9 goals). Freiburg has a fragile defense, having kept a clean sheet only once in their last 10 matches. The match promises to be open with a high probability of goals from both sides.
Our Freiburg vs Aston Villa predictions
Aston Villa wins the match
Aston Villa is the logical favorite with odds of 1.63. Although both teams have a 50% win rate in 10 matches, Aston Villa has better recent form and a more dangerous attack (Watkins 9 goals). Freiburg has shown defensive weaknesses (only 1 clean sheet). As a favorite, Aston Villa has won 4 times in 7 matches (57%). The odds reflect the probability of a Villa win.
1.57
Confidence
High (65 %)
2.5 (Over 2.5 goals)
Both teams have a rate of 'Over 2.5 goals' of 70% in their last 10 matches. Combined with the fact that both teams often score (BTS at 80% for Freiburg, 60% for Aston Villa), it is very likely that the match will exceed 2.5 goals. The odds of 1.63 are attractive for this market.
1.9
Confidence
High (65 %)
Both teams to score
Freiburg has seen both teams score in 80% of its last 10 matches, while Aston Villa is at 60%. Both teams have competent attacks and defenses that concede goals. Freiburg has kept a clean sheet only once in 10 matches. The odds for 'Both teams to score' are 1.63, consistent with the statistics. Being a final, offensive commitment from both sides is expected.
1.9
Confidence
High (65 %)
Market signals on Freiburg vs Aston Villa
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Freiburg vs Aston Villa Statistics
Win
 |  | |
|---|---|---|
Win | 5 2 3 | 5 2 3 |
Win Draw Lose | ||
When Favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Did not lose by being a favorite | 80% | 71% |
Victory by being rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 0% |
Victory by being rated between 1.21 and 1.50 | 0% | 50% |
Victory by being rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 100% | 100% |
Victory by being rated between 1.81 and above | 33% | 33% |
Win by being a favorite | 60% | 57% |
When Outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Did not lose by being an outsider | 60% | 67% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 0% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 0% | 0% |
Win against an opponent rated between 1.8 and above | 40% | 33% |
Win by being an outsider | 40% | 33% |
Clean sheet
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Clean sheet | 10% 90% | 20% 80% |
Yes No | ||
Both teams score
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Both teams score | 80% 20% | 60% 80% |
Yes No | ||
Half-time
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Draw at halftime | 40% 60% | 30% 70% |
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team | 70% 30% | 70% 30% |
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game | 80% 20% | 90% 10% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team | 30% 70% | 20% 80% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game | 60% 40% | 50% 50% |
Leading at half-time | 50% 50% | 50% 50% |
More goals Under goals | ||
Half with most goals
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
1st half | 30% | 40% |
2nd half | 40% | 50% |
Goals Over/Under
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game | 100% | 100% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game | 90% 10% | 80% 20% |
Goals Over/Under 2.5 per game | 70% 30% | 70% 30% |
Goals Over/Under 3.5 per game | 50% 50% | 60% 40% |
Goals Over/Under 4.5 per game | 20% 80% | 20% 80% |
More goals Under goals | ||
Goals Over/Under (by team)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team | 90% 10% | 80% 20% |
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team | 50% 50% | 60% 40% |
Goals Over/Under 2.5 by team | 30% 70% | 50% 50% |
Goals Over/Under 3.5 by team | 10% 90% | 40% 60% |
Goals Over/Under 4.5 by team | 100% | 100% |
More goals Under goals | ||
% of matches in which a player has scored
| 1 | 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Igor Matanovic | 30% (3/10) | 60% (6/10) | Ollie Watkins |
| Johan Manzambi | 22% (2/9) | 44% (4/9) | Morgan Rogers |
| Maximilian Eggestein | 20% (2/10) | 40% (4/10) | Emiliano Buendia |
| Yuito Suzuki | 20% (1/5) | 22% (2/9) | John McGinn |
| Jan-Niklas Beste | 10% (1/10) | 11% (1/9) | Ezri Konsa |
| Vincenzo Grifo | 10% (1/10) | 11% (1/9) | Tammy Abraham |
| Matthias Ginter | 11% (1/9) | 17% (1/6) | Ross Barkley |
| Derry Scherhant | 10% (1/10) | 10% (1/10) | Youri Tielemans |
| Lukas Kuebler | 10% (1/10) | ||
| Philipp Lienhart | 10% (1/10) |
Total goals per player
| 1 | 2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Igor Matanovic | ⚽⚽⚽⚽4 | ⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽9 | Ollie Watkins |
| Yuito Suzuki | ⚽⚽2 | ⚽⚽⚽⚽4 | Morgan Rogers |
| Maximilian Eggestein | ⚽⚽2 | ⚽⚽⚽⚽4 | Emiliano Buendia |
| Johan Manzambi | ⚽⚽2 | ⚽⚽⚽3 | John McGinn |
| Lukas Kuebler | ⚽⚽2 | ⚽1 | Tammy Abraham |
| Philipp Lienhart | ⚽1 | ⚽1 | Ross Barkley |
| Derry Scherhant | ⚽1 | ⚽1 | Ezri Konsa |
| Jan-Niklas Beste | ⚽1 | ⚽1 | Youri Tielemans |
| Matthias Ginter | ⚽1 | ||
| Vincenzo Grifo | ⚽1 |
Over corners (per game)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Over corners 6.5 | 60% | 80% |
Over corners 7.5 | 60% | 70% |
Over corners 8.5 | 50% | 70% |
Over corners 9.5 | 30% | 50% |
Over corners 10.5 | 20% | 20% |
Over corners 11.5 | 20% | 20% |
Over corners 12.5 | 10% | 10% |
Over corners (per team)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Over corners 2.5 | 60% | 100% |
Over corners 3.5 | 50% | 80% |
Over corners 4.5 | 10% | 50% |
Over corners 5.5 | 0% | 30% |
Over corners 6.5 | 0% | 20% |
Over X yellow cards (per team)
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
0.5 | 70% | 80% |
1.5 | 50% | 40% |
2.5 | 30% | 10% |
3.5 | 20% | 0% |
4.5 | 10% | 0% |
5.5 | 0% | 0% |
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