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AEK Athens - Rayo Vallecano: our prediction

16/04/2026•21:00

AEK Athens

3:1

(2:0)

Finished

Rayo Vallecano

AEK Athens vs Rayo Vallecano Preview — Conference League Final Stage

AEK Athens hosts Rayo Vallecano in the Conference League. The Greeks are the bookmakers' favorites with odds at 2.05. In their last 10 matches, AEK has won 5 times, drawn 3 times, and lost 2 times. Rayo Vallecano has a similar record with 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses. Statistics show a tendency for matches with goals, but both teams rarely score simultaneously.

Our AEK Athens vs Rayo Vallecano predictions

Over 2.5 goals in the match

The statistics from the last 10 matches support this bet. For AEK Athens, 6 out of 10 matches saw over 2.5 goals (60%). The team scored at least one goal in 9/10 matches. For Rayo Vallecano, 4 out of 10 matches exceeded 2.5 goals (40%). However, Rayo conceded at least one goal in 7/10 matches. AEK's offensive tendency at home (7 out of 10 matches with over 1.5 goals scored by the team) and Rayo's sometimes fragile defense away (7 out of 10 matches with at least one goal conceded) suggest an open match with several goals.

1.75

Confidence

High

AEK Athens Win

AEK Athens is playing at home and is the bookmakers' favorite (odds 2.05). In the last 10 matches, the team has a win rate of 50% (5/10) and has lost only twice. They have scored at least one goal in 9 of their last 10 matches. Rayo Vallecano, away from home, has a win rate of 40% (4/10) and has conceded at least one goal in 7 of their last 10 matches. Rayo's defense has kept a clean sheet only 3 times out of 10. The home advantage and AEK's offensive efficiency (Luka Jovic, 4 goals) should make the difference.

2.04

Confidence

High

Market signals on AEK Athens vs Rayo Vallecano

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

AEK Athens vs Rayo Vallecano Statistics

History

1 Home / 2 Away

Win

	AEK Athens	Rayo Vallecano
Win	5 3 2	4 3 3
Win Draw Lose

When Favorite

	1	2
Did not lose by being a favorite	86%	86%
Victory by being rated between 1.00 and 1.20	100%	0%
Victory by being rated between 1.21 and 1.50	25%	0%
Victory by being rated between 1.51 and 1.80	100%	60%
Victory by being rated between 1.81 and above	0%	50%
Win by being a favorite	57%	57%

When Outsider

	1	2
Did not lose by being an outsider	67%	33%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	0%
Win against an opponent rated between 1.8 and above	33%	0%
Win by being an outsider	33%	0%

Clean sheet

	1	2
Clean sheet	60% 40%	30% 70%
Yes No

Both teams score

	1	2
Both teams score	20% 80%	40% 20%
Yes No

Half-time

	1	2
Draw at halftime	20% 80%	20% 80%
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team	60% 40%	40% 60%
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game	90% 10%	80% 20%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team	20% 80%	20% 80%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game	50% 50%	30% 70%
Leading at half-time	50% 50%	40% 60%
More goals Under goals

Half with most goals

	1	2
1st half	60%	40%
2nd half	20%	30%

Goals Over/Under

	1	2
Goals Over/Under 0.5 per game	90% 10%	100%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 per game	70% 30%	70% 30%
Goals Over/Under 2.5 per game	60% 40%	40% 60%
Goals Over/Under 3.5 per game	40% 60%	10% 90%
Goals Over/Under 4.5 per game	100%	100%
More goals Under goals

Goals Over/Under (by team)

	1	2
Goals Over/Under 0.5 by team	70% 30%	70% 30%
Goals Over/Under 1.5 by team	50% 50%	30% 70%
Goals Over/Under 2.5 by team	30% 70%	30% 70%
Goals Over/Under 3.5 by team	20% 80%	100%
Goals Over/Under 4.5 by team	100%	100%
More goals Under goals

% of matches in which a player has scored

	1	2
Aboubakary Koita	30% (3/10)	50% (5/10)	Alexandre Zurawski
Zini	20% (2/10)	50% (5/10)	Sergio Camello
Luka Jovic	22% (2/9)	33% (2/6)	Randy Nteka
Barnabas Varga	10% (1/10)	22% (2/9)	Florian Lejeune
Joao Mario	14% (1/7)
Orbelin Pineda	10% (1/10)
Razvan Marin	11% (1/9)

Total goals per player

	1	2
Aboubakary Koita	⚽⚽⚽3	⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽5	Sergio Camello
Zini	⚽⚽⚽3	⚽⚽⚽⚽⚽5	Alexandre Zurawski
Luka Jovic	⚽⚽2	⚽⚽2	Florian Lejeune
Barnabas Varga	⚽1	⚽⚽2	Randy Nteka
Joao Mario	⚽1
Razvan Marin	⚽1
Orbelin Pineda	⚽1

Over corners (per game)

	1	2
Over corners 6.5	90%	90%
Over corners 7.5	90%	90%
Over corners 8.5	50%	80%
Over corners 9.5	40%	60%
Over corners 10.5	30%	60%
Over corners 11.5	20%	50%
Over corners 12.5	10%	50%

Over corners (per team)

	1	2
Over corners 2.5	100%	70%
Over corners 3.5	70%	70%
Over corners 4.5	70%	70%
Over corners 5.5	50%	50%
Over corners 6.5	50%	50%

Over X yellow cards (per team)

	1	2
0.5	100%	80%
1.5	80%	80%
2.5	40%	30%
3.5	20%	20%
4.5	0%	0%
5.5	0%	0%

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