Nick Kyrgios - Aleksandar Kovacevic: our prediction

Kovacevic is the clear favorite (odds 1.64). His recent form is superior (3 wins in last 10 matches vs 3/10 for Kyrgios, but in a different context). Statistics show he wins 70% of his matches as favorite, compared to 50% for Kyrgios. Kyrgios' long absence and uncertainty about his physical condition strengthen Kovacevic's advantage.

Kyrgios, even lacking rhythm, has a high percentage (70%) of winning at least one set as an underdog. Kovacevic, as the favorite, loses at least one set in 70% of cases. Furthermore, 70% of Kovacevic's recent matches outside the Majors have gone to 3 sets. A match in straight sets is therefore unlikely.

The prediction of a 3-set match makes this bet consistent. A 3-set match (e.g., 7-6, 4-6, 6-4) gives 29 games. Even a tight 2-set match (e.g., 7-6, 7-5) gives 25 games. Given the offensive style of both players and the likelihood of tight sets, the total number of games should exceed 22.5.