Rugby

Tennis

Frances Tiafoe - Jason Kubler: our prediction

18/01/2026•07:15

#16

Frances Tiafoe

3:0

7•6

6•3

6•2

Finished

#68

Jason Kubler

Frances Tiafoe vs Jason Kubler Preview — Australian Open ATP

Frances Tiafoe, the clear favorite, faces Jason Kubler in the first round of the Australian Open. Tiafoe, more experienced and higher-ranked, is expected to win, but Kubler's Grand Slam statistics suggest he could take a set.

Our Frances Tiafoe vs Jason Kubler predictions

Frances Tiafoe to Win

Tiafoe is the clear favorite (odds 1.29). His statistics as a favorite are solid (80% win rate). He is more experienced and has a more powerful game suited to the Melbourne hard court. No known injury alerts.

1.29

Confidence

High

Over 32.5 Games in the Match

A 4-set scenario (our second bet) often leads to a total games count over 32.5. Even a tight 3-set match (e.g., 7-6, 6-7, 6-4) can exceed this limit. The playing styles and duration statistics support this possibility.

1.45

Confidence

Medium

Over 3.5 Sets (Match in 4 or 5 sets)

Kubler has a marked tendency for long matches in Grand Slams (60% of his matches go to 4 sets or more). Tiafoe, as a favorite, loses at least one set in 50% of cases. The combination suggests a potentially contested match over 3 sets.

1.57

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Frances Tiafoe vs Jason Kubler

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Frances Tiafoe vs Jason Kubler Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Frances Tiafoe	Jason Kubler
Win \| Lose	3 7	5 5
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	70%	30%
% of match in 4 sets or more	30%	60%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	60%	75%
% of match in 4 sets or more	40%	25%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	10%	30%
% of match in 4 sets or more	90%	60%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	80%	60%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	0%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	66%	66%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	100%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	10%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	50%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	50%	70%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	33%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	66%

Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite

	1	2
Global	50%	60%
rated between 1.00 and 1.20	33%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	66%	50%
rated between 1.51 and 1.80	0%	50%

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