Raphael Perot - Keegan Smith: our prediction

Keegan Smith is the clear favorite (odds 1.65). His recent statistics are solid: 2 wins in 10 matches, but importantly, 70% of his matches (outside Majors) end in 2 sets, indicating an ability to dominate. He also has a 40% win rate as a favorite. Against Raphael Perot, whose data is limited, Smith holds the advantage.

Keegan Smith's data shows that 70% of his recent matches (outside Majors) ended in 2 sets. As a favorite, this rate remains at 70%. Given his favorite status and the lack of convincing data from Perot, it is likely that Smith wins the match in 2 sets (i.e., under 2.5 total sets).

If Keegan Smith dominates and wins the match in 2 sets, a likely scenario is 6-3, 6-4 (19 games) or 6-2, 6-3 (17 games), which remains under the 22.5 games threshold. Although Smith sometimes loses a set (30% of his matches go to 3 sets), his tendency to finish in 2 sets and Perot's apparent weakness (only 20% wins in 10 matches) support this bet.