Donna Vekic - Lin Zhu: our prediction

Vekic is the designated favorite (odds 1.44). Her statistics as a favorite are solid: 50% win rate overall, and 80% of her matches (excluding Grand Slams) end in 2 sets when she is favored. She has a 100% win rate (3/3) when her odds are between 1.0 and 1.2. Against Zhu, who has won 60% of her last 10 matches but with less reliable form as a favorite (40%), Vekic has the advantage.

The statistics of both players indicate a high probability of a match in 2 sets. When favored (excluding Grand Slams), Vekic finishes 80% of her matches in 2 sets. Zhu, as a favorite, finishes 60% of her matches in 2 sets, and as an outsider, this rate is also 60%. Their combined history suggests this match is highly likely not to go to a 3rd set.

With a high probability of a match in 2 sets (previous prediction), the total number of games tends to be lower. If Vekic dominates as expected (potentially 6-3, 6-4), the total would be 19 games. Even with a tight set, a match in 2 sets rarely exceeds 22 games if one of the sets is not very contested (e.g., 7-5, 6-4 = 22 games). Caution is advised as a set could go to a tie-break, but the statistical trend leans towards under.