Tiphanie Lemaitre - Maria Lourdes Carle: our prediction

Carle is the designated favorite (odds 1.39). Her statistics as a favorite are solid: 60% win rate overall and 80% of her wins come in 2 sets. She faces Lemaitre who has only a 45% win rate in her last 11 matches. The odds logic and recent form clearly lean towards Carle.

When favored, Carle finishes her matches in 2 sets in 80% of cases (8/10). On the other hand, Lemaitre, as an underdog, loses in 2 sets in 70% of cases (7/10). The probability of a match in two sets (2-0 or 0-2 victory) is therefore very high, supporting the 'Less than 2.5 sets' bet.

This bet is consistent with the prediction of a match in two sets. If Carle wins 2-0, scores like 6-3, 6-4 (19 games) or 6-2, 6-3 (17 games) are likely. Lemaitre has a 60% chance of winning a set as an underdog, but if she does, the match could go to three sets, increasing the number of games. However, the strong tendency for two-set matches (for both players in this context) makes 'Under 22.5' plausible.