Varvara Gracheva - Lilli Tagger: our prediction
06/03/2026•00:40
#43
Varvara Gracheva
0:2
2•6
4•6
Finished
#63
Lilli Tagger
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1
-
X
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2
Varvara Gracheva vs Lilli Tagger Preview — BNP Paribas Open
Varvara Gracheva, the clear favorite, faces Lilli Tagger, the outsider, at the BNP Paribas Open. Gracheva shows solid form and excellent performance as a favorite. Tagger, although resilient, seems disadvantaged. The match should conclude in two sets.
Our Varvara Gracheva vs Lilli Tagger predictions
Varvara Gracheva to Win
Gracheva is the designated favorite (odds 1.59). Her statistics as a favorite are excellent (90% wins in the last 10 matches). She shows recent form of 70% wins. No known injury alerts. The level and experience gap against Tagger is significant.
1.65
Confidence
Very high
Under 2.5 Sets (Match in 2 Sets)
When favorite, Gracheva finishes her matches in 2 sets 70% of the time (excluding Grand Slams). Tagger, as an outsider, loses in 2 sets 62.5% of the time. The probability of a 3-set match (40% for each player overall) is lower than that of a 2-set match. Consistent with the Gracheva win prediction.
1.5
Confidence
High
Under 22.5 Games in the Match
A 2-set match favors a lower total number of games. If Gracheva dominates as expected (e.g., 6-3, 6-4), the total would be 19 games. Even with a tight set, a score like 7-5, 6-4 gives 22 games. The 22.5 threshold is high for a non-battle two-set match. Gracheva's tendency to win her favorite matches in two sets, often without extreme tension, supports this bet.
1.66
Confidence
Medium
Market signals on Varvara Gracheva vs Lilli Tagger
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Varvara Gracheva vs Lilli Tagger Statistics
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 7 3 | 7 3 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 30% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 50% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 30% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 90% | 80% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 100% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 100% | 75% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 83% | 75% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 30% | 37% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 50% | 66% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 33% | 0% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 50% | 66% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 66% | 0% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 50% | 60% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 50% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 83% | 100% |
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