Rugby

Tennis

Stefano Napolitano - Luka Mikrut: our prediction

04/03/2026•13:25

#164

Stefano Napolitano

2:1

1•6

7•6

3•2

Finished

#195

Luka Mikrut

Stefano Napolitano vs Luka Mikrut Preview — Kigali

Stefano Napolitano, statistical favorite, faces Luka Mikrut, a performing underdog. The odds reflect a tight match with a slight preference for Mikrut. No injuries reported. Analysis based on recent statistics and performances as favorite/underdog.

Our Stefano Napolitano vs Luka Mikrut predictions

Luka Mikrut to Win

Luka Mikrut is the bookmakers' favorite (odds 1.55). His statistics as an underdog are excellent (80% win rate). He has solid recent form (5 wins/10 last matches) and a strong ability to win at least one set as an underdog (80%). Against Napolitano, who struggles as an underdog (20% win rate), Mikrut has a clear advantage.

1.54

Confidence

High

Over 2.5 sets in the match

Player statistics indicate a high probability of a 3-set match. Napolitano, as an underdog, wins at least one set in 50% of cases. Mikrut, as a favorite, loses at least one set in 70% of cases. Their percentages of 3-set matches are high (40% for Napolitano, 50% for Mikrut). A two-set match seems unlikely.

2.32

Confidence

High

Over 22.5 games in the match

A 3-set match increases the probability of exceeding 22.5 games. If each set is tight (e.g., 7-5, 6-4, 6-4), the total reaches 32 games. Even with a one-sided set, the combination of tight sets and a long match makes this bet plausible. However, the margin is narrow if one player clearly dominates.

1.92

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Stefano Napolitano vs Luka Mikrut

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Stefano Napolitano vs Luka Mikrut Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Stefano Napolitano	Luka Mikrut
Win \| Lose	4 6	5 5
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	50%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	50%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	60%	60%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	50%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	80%	80%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	0%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	20%	80%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	25%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	60%	66%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	50%	80%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	60%	66%

Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite

	1	2
Global	40%	70%
rated between 1.00 and 1.20	100%	50%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	20%	60%
rated between 1.51 and 1.80	33%	100%

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