Rugby

Tennis

Kayla Day - Iga Swiatek: our prediction

07/03/2026•22:15

#122

Kayla Day

0:2

0•6

6•7

Finished

Iga Swiatek

Kayla Day vs Iga Swiatek Preview — BNP Paribas Open

World number one Iga Swiatek faces the much lower-ranked Kayla Day at the BNP Paribas Open. Swiatek is the overwhelming favorite with odds of 1.02. Recent statistics show she wins 70% of her matches as a favorite and 87.5% when her odds are between 1.0 and 1.2. Day, as an outsider, wins a set 60% of the time, but a victory seems highly unlikely.

Our Kayla Day vs Iga Swiatek predictions

Iga Swiatek to Win

Swiatek is the world number one and the undisputed favorite. Her statistics as a favorite with very low odds (87.5% win rate for odds 1.0-1.2) are impressive. Day, although capable of winning a set, does not have the level to cause an upset over the course of a match.

1.01

Confidence

Very high

Under 2.5 Sets in the Match

The match is played as best-of-3 sets (non-Grand Slam). Swiatek wins 60% of her matches in 2 sets as a favorite. Day, as an outsider, sees 90% of her matches end in 2 sets. The probability of a 3-set match (20% for Swiatek, 30% for Day in this context) is low given the expected dominance of the world number one.

1.1

Confidence

High

Market signals on Kayla Day vs Iga Swiatek

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Kayla Day vs Iga Swiatek Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Kayla Day	Iga Swiatek
Win \| Lose	7 3	6 4
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	40%	20%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	20%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	40%	44%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	50%	70%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	50%	87%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	0%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	60%	0%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	50%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	40%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	25%	44%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	60%	70%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	40%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	75%	55%

Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite

	1	2
Global	50%	50%
rated between 1.00 and 1.20	50%	37%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	100%
rated between 1.51 and 1.80	40%	0%

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