Francisco Cerundolo - Jack Draper: our prediction

Jack Draper is the legitimate favorite (odds 1.57). His recent form is excellent (7W/3L in the last 10 matches, compared to 8W/2L for Cerundolo, but in a different context). Statistics show Draper is very combative as an outsider (50% win rate) and often wins at least one set (60%). In this match, he is the favorite and his 'perd1set_asfav' (70%) and 'en3set' (60%) indicators suggest a close match, but his consistency and adaptation to hard court should give him the edge.

Player statistics for 3-set matches (outside Grand Slams) are very telling: Draper has 60% of his matches going to 3 sets ('en3setall'), and even 60% when he is the favorite ('en3set'). Cerundolo, as an outsider, has a 'win1set_asoutsider' indicator of 50%, showing his ability to snatch a set. Furthermore, Draper has a 'perd1set_asfav' indicator of 70%, indicating that even when he wins, he often loses a set. All these elements point to a long match in 3 sets.

This bet is consistent with the prediction of a match in 3 sets. A match in 2 sets (6-4, 6-4) totals 20 games, thus below the limit. A match in 3 sets significantly increases the probability of exceeding 22.5 games. Considering the offensive playing style of both players and their ability to hold serve (recent win statistics), tight sets (e.g., 7-5, 6-7, 6-4) are plausible. Confidence is medium because a very dominant match in 3 sets (6-2, 3-6, 6-1) could remain below the threshold.