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Tennis

Madison Keys - Sonay Kartal: our prediction

10/03/2026•02:10

Madison Keys

1:2

6•2

2•6

3•6

Finished

#61

Sonay Kartal

Madison Keys vs Sonay Kartal Preview — BNP Paribas Open

Madison Keys, experienced and favored, faces qualifier Sonay Kartal at the BNP Paribas Open. Keys, with a low odd, is confident but Kartal has shown recent ability to win sets.

Our Madison Keys vs Sonay Kartal predictions

Madison Keys to Win

Madison Keys is clearly favored (odd 1.5). Her statistics as a favorite are solid (80% wins in last 10 matches). Her experience and power should make the difference against Kartal, a qualifier with less experience at this level.

1.5

Confidence

Very high

Under 2.5 Sets

The match is best-of-2 sets (WTA). Keys has a 60% rate of matches in 2 sets in her last 10 matches outside Majors. Kartal, as an outsider, has 40% matches in 2 sets. The probability of a match in 2 sets is high.

1.5

Confidence

High

Over 22.5 Games

Although Keys is favored for a match in 2 sets, her statistics show she loses a set in 30% of cases as a favorite. Kartal has a good ability to win a set as an outsider (70%). A tight set or a set lost by Keys could push the total games over 22.5.

2.1

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Madison Keys vs Sonay Kartal

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Madison Keys vs Sonay Kartal Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Madison Keys	Sonay Kartal
Win \| Lose	7 3	7 3
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	30%	20%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	30%	37%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	60%	33%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	80%	70%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	80%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	62%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	100%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	20%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	20%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	33%	33%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	60%	70%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	60%	80%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	33%	66%