Jacob Fearnley - Arthur Cazaux: our prediction

Despite the bookmakers' favorite status for Fearnley, recent form data strongly favors Cazaux (70% wins vs 30%). Cazaux also shows an 80% win rate when he is the favorite (odds between 1.21 and 1.5), which is very high. His ability to win sets as an outsider (70%) shows his resilience. The odds value of 2.16 is attractive considering these factors.

Player statistics in non-Grand Slam tournaments (sub_section: 'Grand Slam's events excluded') indicate a strong tendency for matches to end in two sets. Cazaux finishes 80% of his matches in 2 sets when he is the favorite, and Fearnley 70%. Overall, Cazaux has 80% of his matches ending in 2 sets, and Fearnley 50%. The probability of a match ending in two sets (a 2-0 win for either player) is therefore high.

This bet is consistent with the prediction of a match in two sets (Under 2.5 sets). If the match ends 2-0, the total number of games must be less than 23 for the bet to win. Given the tendency of both players to finish their matches in two sets, often decisively (Cazaux 80%, Fearnley 70% as favorite), a scenario with sets like 6-4, 6-4 (20 games) or 6-3, 6-4 (19 games) is plausible. Confidence is medium because a very tight set (e.g., 7-6) could push the total over the limit.