Matteo Martineau - Pavel Kotov: our prediction
11/03/2026•18:35
#186
Matteo Martineau
1:2
4•6
7•6
6•7
Finished
#71
Pavel Kotov
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1
-
X
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2
Matteo Martineau vs Pavel Kotov Preview — Cherbourg
ATP tennis match in Cherbourg between Matteo Martineau (underdog) and Pavel Kotov (favorite). Kotov displays superior recent form (80% win rate in last 10 matches) and a low odd of 1.31. Statistics suggest a potentially tight match, with a significant probability of seeing over 2.5 sets.
Our Matteo Martineau vs Pavel Kotov predictions
Pavel Kotov to Win
Pavel Kotov is the clear favorite (odd 1.31). He displays excellent form with 8 wins in his last 10 matches (80%). As a favorite in non-Grand Slam tournaments, he wins 80% of his matches in 2 sets. No known injury alerts. Matteo Martineau, while capable (40% recent win rate), appears outmatched on paper.
1.42
Confidence
High
Under 22.5 Games in the Match
This bet is consistent with a Kotov win in 2 tight sets, or in 3 sets with close scores (e.g., 7-5, 4-6, 6-4 = 22 games). Kotov has a strong tendency to win 2-0 as a favorite (80%). Even if the match goes to 3 sets, games can stay under the line if sets are balanced but not extremely tight (e.g., without 7-6 tie-breaks). The probability of 3 sets does not automatically imply a high game count.
1.9
Confidence
Medium
Over 2.5 Sets in the Match
Historical statistics for both players indicate a tendency for long matches. Kotov, as a favorite, loses at least 1 set in 50% of his recent matches. Martineau, as an underdog, wins at least 1 set in 40% of his matches. Combined with Martineau's high odd (3.16), it suggests he could take a set, pushing the match over 2.5 sets.
2.32
Confidence
Medium
Market signals on Matteo Martineau vs Pavel Kotov
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Matteo Martineau vs Pavel Kotov Statistics
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 4 6 | 8 2 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 50% | 30% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 70% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 25% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 75% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 37% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 62% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 60% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 100% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 25% | 50% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 83% | 50% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 30% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 66% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 42% | 80% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 66% | 33% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 42% | 100% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 50% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 75% | 75% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 50% | 50% |
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