Rugby

Tennis

Carlos Alcaraz - Daniil Medvedev: our prediction

14/03/2026•23:35

Carlos Alcaraz

0:2

3•6

6•7

Finished

Daniil Medvedev

Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Preview — BNP Paribas Open

Carlos Alcaraz, the clear favorite, faces Daniil Medvedev in the BNP Paribas Open final. Alcaraz, in excellent form with 10 consecutive wins, is the heavy favorite. Medvedev, solid, looks to create an upset. The match is played as best of 2 sets.

Our Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev predictions

Carlos Alcaraz to Win

Alcaraz is the undisputed favorite (odds 1.17). He is on a streak of 10 consecutive wins (100% win rate in his last 10 matches). His 'victoir_fav' statistic is 100%. No injuries reported. His form and seeded status make him the most likely winner.

1.18

Confidence

Very high

Under 2.5 Sets in the Match

The match is not a Grand Slam (best-of-2-sets format). The 'en2set' statistics show Alcaraz wins 80% of his matches in 2 sets as favorite, and Medvedev 100%. The probability of a 2-set match (under 2.5) is therefore high, consistent with Alcaraz's expected victory.

1.4

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 Games in the Match

With a likely Alcaraz win in 2 sets, the total number of games should be contained. Medvedev, although solid, has a 'perd1set_asfav' statistic of only 10%, indicating he rarely loses a set as favorite, but here he is the underdog. The logic of a short match (2-0) suggests a total games often under 22.5. Confidence is medium as Medvedev could be resilient in one set.

1.6

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Carlos Alcaraz	Daniil Medvedev
Win \| Lose	10	9 1
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	70%	20%
% of match in 4 sets or more	30%	80%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	80%	30%
% of match in 4 sets or more	20%	70%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	33%	50%
% of match in 4 sets or more	50%	50%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	100%	90%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	75%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	100%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	40%	20%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	33%	50%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	70%	30%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	83%	50%

Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite

	1	2
Global	30%	10%
rated between 1.00 and 1.20	22%	0%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	25%
rated between 1.51 and 1.80	0%	0%

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