Rugby

Tennis

Mattia Bellucci - Nicolas Jarry: our prediction

17/03/2026•02:25

#73

Mattia Bellucci

2:0

6•3

6•1

Finished

#19

Nicolas Jarry

Mattia Bellucci vs Nicolas Jarry Preview — Miami Open, Qualification

Mattia Bellucci, the betting favorite, faces Nicolas Jarry in the Miami Open qualifiers. Bellucci shows solid form (6 wins in last 10 matches) and excellent performance as a favorite (90% win rate). Jarry, struggling (0 wins in last 10 matches), seems to lack confidence. The match is played in a best-of-2-sets format, and statistics suggest a short match in favor of Bellucci.

Our Mattia Bellucci vs Nicolas Jarry predictions

Mattia Bellucci to Win

Bellucci is clearly the favorite (odds 1.46). His recent form is excellent (6W/4L), especially as a favorite where he wins 90% of the time. Jarry is in a total crisis (0W/10L). The difference in level and confidence should be decisive.

1.44

Confidence

High

Under 2.5 Sets

Bellucci wins 80% of his matches in 2 sets when he is the favorite. Jarry loses 100% of his recent matches, often convincingly. The probability of a match in 2 sets (2-0 win for Bellucci) is very high, making 'Under 2.5 Sets' a bet consistent with Bellucci's victory.

1.5

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 Games

If Bellucci wins 2-0 as expected, the total number of games will depend on Jarry's resistance. Given Jarry's poor form (0W/10L) and Bellucci's strong performance as a favorite, close sets are unlikely. A scenario of 6-3, 6-4 (21 games) or more one-sided is plausible, supporting the 'Under 22.5' bet.

1.91

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Mattia Bellucci vs Nicolas Jarry

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Mattia Bellucci vs Nicolas Jarry Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Mattia Bellucci	Nicolas Jarry
Win \| Lose	6 4	10
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	40%	40%
% of match in 4 sets or more	60%	60%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	25%	10%
% of match in 4 sets or more	75%	90%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	42%	50%
% of match in 4 sets or more	57%	50%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	90%	50%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	25%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	66%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	40%	20%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	50%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	25%	20%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	0%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	40%	60%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	50%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	25%	80%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	50%