Rugby

Tennis

Mattia Bellucci - Murphy Cassone: our prediction

17/03/2026•22:15

#73

Mattia Bellucci

2:1

3•6

7•6

6•3

Finished

#209

Murphy Cassone

Mattia Bellucci vs Murphy Cassone Preview — Miami Open, Qualification

Mattia Bellucci, the clear favorite (odds 1.38), faces Murphy Cassone in the Miami Open qualifiers. Bellucci shows solid form (70% win rate in last 10 matches) and excellent performance as a favorite (90% win rate). Cassone, less consistent (50% win rate), struggles more to win as an underdog (10%). Set statistics suggest a match likely to be decided in two sets.

Our Mattia Bellucci vs Murphy Cassone predictions

Mattia Bellucci to Win

Bellucci is the designated favorite (odds 1.38) with superior form (70% win rate vs 50% for Cassone). His statistics as a favorite are impressive (90% win rate in his last 10 matches in that role). Cassone has a low win rate as an underdog (10%). No known injury alert contradicts this dynamic.

1.25

Confidence

High

Under 2.5 Sets (Match in 2 Sets)

Player statistics in non-Grand Slam matches (like this tournament) strongly favor a two-set match. Bellucci finished 100% of his last 10 non-Grand Slam matches in 2 sets. Cassone did the same 90% of the time. Furthermore, when Bellucci is the favorite, he wins 80% of his matches in 2 sets. The probability of a three-set match is low.

1.42

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 Games in the Match

This bet is consistent with the prediction of a two-set match. If Bellucci wins in two tight sets (e.g., 6-4, 6-4), the total would be 20 games. Even with a tighter set, the total often remains under 22.5. Bellucci's strong tendency to win his matches in two sets (80% as favorite) and Cassone's difficulty in winning sets as an underdog (30%) support this scenario.

1.6

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Mattia Bellucci vs Murphy Cassone

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Mattia Bellucci vs Murphy Cassone Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Mattia Bellucci	Murphy Cassone
Win \| Lose	7 3	5 5
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	40%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	60%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	25%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	75%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	42%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	57%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	90%	60%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	60%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	50%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	40%	10%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	50%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	25%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	40%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	40%	30%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	50%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	25%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	40%