Rugby

Tennis

Carlos Alcaraz - Sebastian Korda: our prediction

22/03/2026•20:05

Carlos Alcaraz

1:2

3•6

7•5

4•6

Finished

#20

Sebastian Korda

Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Korda Preview — Miami Open

Carlos Alcaraz, the favorite and seeded player, faces Sebastian Korda at the Miami Open. Alcaraz shows solid form and an excellent winning record as a favorite. Korda, the underdog, has demonstrated his ability to win sets against favorites. No injuries reported.

Our Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Korda predictions

Carlos Alcaraz to Win

Alcaraz is the clear favorite with odds of 1.12. His statistics are impressive: 90% win rate in his last 10 matches and 90% win rate as a favorite. His recent form and seeded status put him in a strong position.

1.12

Confidence

Very high

Under 2.5 Sets

The match is best-of-2 sets (non-Grand Slam). Alcaraz has an 80% rate of matches in 2 sets as a favorite. Korda, although capable, has a 90% rate of matches in 2 sets as a favorite, but only 40% as an underdog. The probability of a match in 2 sets is high.

1.33

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 Games

With a likely Alcaraz win in 2 sets, the total number of games should be moderate. Alcaraz, as a favorite with low odds, tends to dominate his matches. However, Korda has a 70% rate of winning at least one set as an underdog, which could increase the game count. The balance leans towards a total under 22.5.

1.55

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Korda

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Carlos Alcaraz vs Sebastian Korda Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Carlos Alcaraz	Sebastian Korda
Win \| Lose	9 1	8 2
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	70%	50%
% of match in 4 sets or more	30%	50%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	80%	50%
% of match in 4 sets or more	20%	50%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	33%	60%
% of match in 4 sets or more	50%	40%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	90%	90%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	90%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	80%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	100%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	40%	20%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	33%	40%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	70%	70%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	66%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	83%	80%

Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite

	1	2
Global	30%	20%
rated between 1.00 and 1.20	30%	0%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	40%
rated between 1.51 and 1.80	0%	0%

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