Hayato Matsuoka vs Kasidit Samrej — Prediction
31/03/2026•04:10
#166
Hayato Matsuoka
2:0
7•6
6•3
Finished
#411
Kasidit Samrej
-
1
-
X
-
2
Match Preview
Hayato Matsuoka, the odds favorite, faces Kasidit Samrej in an ATP match in Miyazaki. Both players show mixed recent form (40% wins in the last 10 matches). Matsuoka is more effective as a favorite (75% wins), while Samrej is less comfortable as an outsider (20% wins). Statistics suggest a potentially tight match, with a tendency for Samrej's matches to end in two sets.
Our predictions
Under 2.5 sets
Kasidit Samrej finishes 80% of his matches (excluding Grand Slams) in 2 sets. Hayato Matsuoka, although the favorite, loses at least one set in 62.5% of his matches as a favorite. However, Samrej's strong tendency for quick matches, combined with the attractive odds, supports this bet.
1.53
Confidence
High
Hayato Matsuoka to win
Matsuoka is the designated favorite (odds 1.62). He has a good win rate as a favorite (75% in his last 8 matches in this role). His opponent, Samrej, wins only 20% of his matches as an outsider. The recent form of both players is identical (40% wins), but the favorite status and performances in that role give Matsuoka a slight edge.
1.64
Confidence
Medium
Over 22.5 games
This bet is riskier because Samrej has a strong tendency for two-set matches (potentially 6-4, 6-4 = 20 games). However, Matsuoka often loses a set as a favorite (62.5%). If the match goes to three sets, the total games will very likely exceed 22.5. The odds are high, reflecting the risk, but a three-set match scenario is not out of the question.
1.94
Confidence
Low
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 4 6 | 4 6 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 100% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 100% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 75% | 50% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 100% | 50% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 66% | 60% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 20% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 25% | 25% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 100% | 20% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 70% | 20% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 100% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 100% | 20% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 62% | 50% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 50% | 50% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 66% | 40% |
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