Enrico Dalla Valle vs Maxime Chazal — Prediction

Dalla Valle is the clear favorite (odds 1.36). His statistics as a favorite are solid: 80% wins in his last 10 matches in that role. He has won 70% of his recent matches in 2 sets. Against Chazal, who wins only 30% of his recent matches and has a low win rate as an outsider (10%), the statistical logic strongly points to a Dalla Valle victory.

The data on match format (excluding Grand Slams) is very clear: Dalla Valle finishes 70% of his matches in 2 sets, and Chazal 90%. When they are favorites, Dalla Valle finishes 90% of his matches in 2 sets, and Chazal 78%. The probability of a match in 2 sets (i.e., under 2.5) is very high, consistent with the prediction of a Dalla Valle victory.