Joaquin Aguilar - Juan Manuel La Serna: our prediction
01/04/2026
#422
Joaquin Aguilar
17:00
#204
Juan Manuel La Serna
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Joaquin Aguilar vs Juan Manuel La Serna Preview — Sao Leopoldo
ATP tennis match in Sao Leopoldo between Joaquin Aguilar and Juan Manuel La Serna. La Serna is in better recent form (60% wins in last 10 matches vs 20% for Aguilar) and shows solid performance as a favorite. Aguilar, often the underdog, demonstrates an ability to win sets. A tight three-set match is likely.
Our Joaquin Aguilar vs Juan Manuel La Serna predictions
Juan Manuel La Serna to Win
La Serna shows significantly better form (60% wins in 10 matches vs 20% for Aguilar) and excellent performance as a favorite (90% wins). Aguilar has a low win rate as an underdog (20%). The odds of 1.57 offer good value.
1.57
Confidence
High
Over 2.5 sets in the match
Statistics indicate a high probability of a three-set match: 60% of recent matches for both players (excluding Grand Slams) ended in 3 sets. Aguilar often wins at least one set as an underdog (70%). La Serna often loses a set as a favorite (50%).
2.1
Confidence
High
Over 22.5 games in the match
A three-set match increases the probability of exceeding 22.5 games. Even a tight two-set match (e.g., 7-6, 7-5) reaches 25 games. The tendency for contested sets, with Aguilar capable of resistance, supports this bet.
1.83
Confidence
Medium
Market signals on Joaquin Aguilar vs Juan Manuel La Serna
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Joaquin Aguilar vs Juan Manuel La Serna Statistics
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 2 8 | 6 4 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 100% | 90% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 100% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 100% | 100% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 20% | 40% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 75% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 100% | 33% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 70% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 66% | 100% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 100% | 33% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 0% | 50% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 100% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 60% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 0% | 33% |
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