Rugby

Tennis

Alexei Popyrin - Casper Ruud: our prediction

07/04/2026•14:50

#22

Alexei Popyrin

0:2

3•6

4•6

Finished

Casper Ruud

Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud Preview — Rolex Monte Carlo Masters

Casper Ruud, the clear favorite and clay court specialist, faces Alexei Popyrin in a Monte Carlo Masters match. Recent statistics and odds indicate a significant advantage for Ruud, but Popyrin has shown his ability to win sets against favorites.

Our Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud predictions

Casper Ruud to Win

Ruud is the logical favorite (odds 1.31). A clay court specialist, he shows solid recent form (60% win rate as favorite). Statistics show he wins 80% of his matches in 2 sets when favored in non-Grand Slam events. No known injury alerts.

1.31

Confidence

High

Under 2.5 Sets

When favored (odds 1.31), Ruud finishes his matches in 2 sets 80% of the time in non-Grand Slam events. Popyrin, as an outsider, loses in 2 sets 70% of the time under the same conditions. The probability of a match in 2 sets (2-0 or 0-2 win) is therefore high.

1.44

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 Games

The strong tendency for a match in 2 sets (under 2.5 sets) suggests a potentially limited total number of games. If Ruud dominates as expected (potentially 6-3, 6-4), the total games would remain under the 22.5 threshold. However, Popyrin's ability to win sets (30% win rate of at least 1 set as an outsider) introduces uncertainty.

1.74

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Alexei Popyrin	Casper Ruud
Win \| Lose	4 6	5 5
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	60%	40%
% of match in 4 sets or more	40%	60%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	60%	40%
% of match in 4 sets or more	40%	60%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	30%	60%
% of match in 4 sets or more	70%	40%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	60%	60%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	57%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	0%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	10%	20%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	33%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	33%	50%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	30%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	20%	66%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	100%

Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite

	1	2
Global	60%	70%
rated between 1.00 and 1.20	0%	0%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	85%
rated between 1.51 and 1.80	100%	100%

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