Vit Kopriva vs Matteo Arnaldi — Prediction
04/04/2026•15:25
#39
Vit Kopriva
1:2
6•2
3•6
2•6
Finished
#38
Matteo Arnaldi
-
1
-
X
-
2
Match Preview
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters qualification match between Vit Kopriva (favorite, odds 1.56) and Matteo Arnaldi (underdog, odds 2.35). Both players show similar recent form (40% wins in last 10 matches). Kopriva is very solid as a favorite in 2-set matches (80%), while Arnaldi struggles to win as an underdog (0%). No information on injuries or absences.
Our predictions
Vit Kopriva to Win
Kopriva is the favorite (odds 1.56) and shows an excellent 2-set win statistic as a favorite (80%). Arnaldi has a 0% win rate as an underdog in his last 10 matches. Recent form is equal, but the favorite status and Kopriva's solidity in this role are decisive.
1.56
Confidence
High
Under 2.5 Sets
Kopriva wins 80% of his matches in 2 sets as a favorite. Arnaldi, as an underdog, wins 70% of his matches in 2 sets but has a low win rate. The probability of a 2-set match (clear Kopriva win) is high, supporting 'Under 2.5 sets'.
1.51
Confidence
High
Under 22.5 Games
With a high probability of a 2-set match (e.g., 6-4, 6-3), the total number of games should remain low. Kopriva, as a solid favorite, can control the match. However, Arnaldi can be competitive in some games. The trend towards 2-set matches suggests a moderate total of games.
1.73
Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 4 6 | 4 6 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 37% | 50% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 62% | 50% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 55% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 100% | 33% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 42% | 30% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 57% | 70% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 50% | 60% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 100% | 66% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 66% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 33% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 100% | 33% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 80% | 40% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 100% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 100% | 66% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 60% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 100% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 50% | 66% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 50% | 33% |
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