Jan Choinski vs Alexandre Muller — Prediction
04/04/2026•16:05
#118
Jan Choinski
0:2
6•7
3•6
Finished
#70
Alexandre Muller
-
1
-
X
-
2
Match Preview
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters qualification match between Jan Choinski (underdog) and Alexandre Muller (favorite). Recent statistics show balanced form over the last 10 matches (5 wins each). Muller is favored with odds of 1.75, but Choinski has a strong tendency to win at least one set as an underdog (70%). The match should be close with a high probability of exceeding 22.5 games.
Our predictions
Over 22.5 games in the match
Statistics show Choinski wins at least one set in 70% of cases as an underdog, while Muller loses one set in 60% of cases as a favorite. This dynamic suggests a close match with likely 2 contested sets (6-4, 4-6, 6-4) or 3 sets, easily exceeding 22.5 games.
1.83
Confidence
High
Under 2.5 sets in the match
Muller has won 90% of his non-Grand Slam matches in 2 sets, and 60% of his wins as favorite occur in 2 sets. Choinski, although resilient, has lost 50% of his matches in 2 sets. The probability of a 2-set match is high, supported by the 1.75 odds on Muller's victory.
1.57
Confidence
High
Victory of Alexandre Muller
Muller is favored with odds of 1.75 and shows better statistics as favorite (60% wins). However, Choinski is dangerous with a 70% chance of winning a set as an underdog. Muller's victory is likely but not certain, hence a medium confidence level.
1.79
Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 5 5 | 5 5 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 25% | 20% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 75% | 80% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 25% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 75% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 25% | 30% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 75% | 70% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 60% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 85% | 80% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 0% | 25% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 30% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 42% | 100% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 40% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 70% | 40% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 33% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 71% | 100% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 40% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 60% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 42% | 40% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 100% | 75% |
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