Damir Dzumhur vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer — Prediction
04/04/2026•17:45
#30
Damir Dzumhur
2:0
7•6
7•5
Finished
#139
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
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1
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X
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2
Match Preview
Damir Dzumhur, the favorite (odds 1.82), faces the young Nicolai Budkov Kjaer (odds 1.89) in the Monte Carlo Masters qualifiers. Dzumhur, experienced, has mixed form (4W/6L in last 10) but an excellent win rate as favorite (80%). Budkov Kjaer, less experienced, has slightly better form (6W/4L) and a good performance as favorite (70%). The match should be tight, with a high probability of the favorite losing a set.
Our predictions
Damir Dzumhur to win
Dzumhur is designated as the favorite (odds 1.82). Despite recent mixed form (4W/6L), he shows an 80% win rate as favorite in his last 10 matches in that situation. His experience on the ATP tour against a young player like Budkov Kjaer, less accustomed to this level, could make the difference.
1.83
Confidence
High
Over 2.5 sets in the match
Statistics indicate a high probability of a 3-set match. Dzumhur, as favorite, loses at least one set in 70% of cases. Furthermore, Budkov Kjaer wins at least one set in 75% of cases when he is an underdog against a favorite with odds between 1.51 and 1.80 (Dzumhur's category). The historical data of both players in non-Grand Slam matches also show a tendency towards 3 sets (40% for Dzumhur, 40% for Budkov Kjaer in the last 10).
2.3
Confidence
High
Over 22.5 games in the match
With a prediction of a 3-set match (over 2.5 sets), the total number of games is very likely to exceed 22.5. Even in a 2-set scenario, if the sets are tight (e.g., 7-5, 6-4 = 22 games), the threshold could be reached. Dzumhur's tendency to lose sets as favorite and Budkov Kjaer's ability to win sets suggest potentially close sets, increasing the number of games.
1.85
Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 4 6 | 6 4 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 60% | 100% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 40% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 50% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 50% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 44% | 100% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 55% | 0% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 80% | 70% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 100% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 66% | 71% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 100% | 50% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 30% | 30% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 50% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 25% | 50% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 40% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 75% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 25% | 75% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 70% | 60% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 66% | 71% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 75% | 50% |
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