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Roberto Bautista Agut - Matteo Berrettini: our prediction

07/04/2026•11:10

Roberto Bautista Agut

0:1

0•4

Finished

Matteo Berrettini

Roberto Bautista Agut vs Matteo Berrettini Preview — Rolex Monte Carlo Masters

First-round match at the Monte-Carlo Masters on clay between the experienced Roberto Bautista Agut and the powerful Matteo Berrettini. Berrettini is the clear favourite according to the odds, but Bautista Agut, a clay-court specialist, could make the match tight.

Our Roberto Bautista Agut vs Matteo Berrettini predictions

Matteo Berrettini to Win

Berrettini is the designated favourite (odds 1.35). His statistics as a favourite (50% wins in last 10 matches) are solid, especially on this surface. Bautista Agut has a low win rate as an outsider (10%). Berrettini's power should make the difference.

1.29

Confidence

High

Over 2.5 Sets (Match in 3 Sets)

Statistics indicate a high probability of a 3-set match. Excluding Grand Slams, Berrettini (favourite) plays 40% of his matches in 3 sets, and Bautista Agut (outsider) 30%. Furthermore, Berrettini loses at least one set as a favourite in 70% of cases, reinforcing this hypothesis.

2.62

Confidence

High

Over 22.5 Games in the Match

A 3-set match on clay increases the chances of exceeding the 22.5 games mark. The playing styles (Berrettini's power, Bautista Agut's consistency) can lead to tight sets. However, a scenario with two very one-sided sets is possible, hence medium confidence.

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Roberto Bautista Agut vs Matteo Berrettini

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Roberto Bautista Agut vs Matteo Berrettini Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Roberto Bautista Agut	Matteo Berrettini
Win \| Lose	4 6	5 5
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	30%	30%
% of match in 4 sets or more	70%	60%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	30%	30%
% of match in 4 sets or more	70%	60%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	40%	30%
% of match in 4 sets or more	60%	70%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	70%	50%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	66%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	25%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	10%	30%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	25%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	50%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	40%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	50%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	33%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	33%	66%