Cristian Garin vs Matteo Arnaldi — Prediction
06/04/2026•14:35
#6
Cristian Garin
2:0
6•2
6•4
Finished
#38
Matteo Arnaldi
-
1
-
X
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2
Match Preview
Cristian Garin, the favorite (odds 1.61), faces Matteo Arnaldi (odds 2.25) at the Rolex Monte Carlo Masters. Recent statistics show mixed form for both players (30% wins in last 10 matches). Garin performs better as a favorite on clay, while Arnaldi can be dangerous as an underdog. No injuries reported.
Our predictions
Cristian Garin to Win
Garin is the favorite (odds 1.61) and performs well in this role (60% win rate as favorite). On clay, his preferred surface, he has an advantage. Arnaldi has a low win rate as an underdog (10%).
1.62
Confidence
High
Over 2.5 Sets in the Match
Garin often loses a set as favorite (60%). Arnaldi wins at least one set in 50% of cases as underdog. Non-Major statistics show a tendency for 3-set matches (60% for Garin, 40% for Arnaldi).
2.31
Confidence
High
Over 22.5 Games in the Match
With a prediction of over 2.5 sets, the number of games should exceed 22.5. Close matches on clay tend to have more games. However, a win in 2 tight sets could approach this limit.
1.96
Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 3 7 | 3 7 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 50% | 50% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 50% | 50% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 20% | 55% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 80% | 33% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 50% | 30% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 50% | 70% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 70% | 60% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 80% | 66% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 66% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 10% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 16% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 40% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 50% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 80% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 50% | 60% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 40% | 66% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 75% | 33% |
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