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Marin Cilic - Alexander Shevchenko: our prediction

07/04/2026

Marin Cilic

11:00

#50

Alexander Shevchenko

Marin Cilic vs Alexander Shevchenko Preview — Rolex Monte Carlo Masters

Marin Cilic, a former Grand Slam champion, faces Alexander Shevchenko, a promising young player, at the Rolex Monte Carlo Masters on clay. Cilic is the favorite with odds of 1.62, but Shevchenko has shown solid form recently. Statistics suggest a potentially tight match, with a significant probability of seeing more than 2.5 sets.

Our Marin Cilic vs Alexander Shevchenko predictions

Over 2.5 sets in the match

Historical statistics show Shevchenko, as an outsider, has a 40% probability of winning at least one set (win1set_asoutsider_g). Cilic, as the favorite, has a 30% probability of losing at least one set (perd1set_asfav_g). Combined with Shevchenko's recent form, this suggests a three-set match.

2.25

Confidence

High

Marin Cilic to win

Cilic is the designated favorite (odds 1.62) with superior experience, especially on clay. His statistics as a favorite (victoir_fav_g at 80%) are excellent. Despite Shevchenko's form, Cilic's experience and power should make the difference in the long run.

1.62

Confidence

High

Over 22.5 games in the match

The prediction of a three-set match (over 2.5 sets) naturally increases the probability of a high game count. If each set is competitive (e.g., 7-5, 4-6, 6-4), the total will easily exceed 22.5 games. Shevchenko's resilience can push Cilic to tight sets.

1.87

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Marin Cilic vs Alexander Shevchenko

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Marin Cilic vs Alexander Shevchenko Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Marin Cilic	Alexander Shevchenko
Win \| Lose	5 5	6 4
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	50%	50%
% of match in 4 sets or more	50%	50%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	60%	20%
% of match in 4 sets or more	40%	80%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	30%	60%
% of match in 4 sets or more	70%	40%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	80%	100%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	100%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	100%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	30%	20%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	33%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	25%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	0%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	50%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	66%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	0%

Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite

	1	2
Global	30%	30%
rated between 1.00 and 1.20	0%	0%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	20%	50%
rated between 1.51 and 1.80	50%	20%

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