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Gael Monfils - Alexander Bublik: our prediction

08/04/2026

Gael Monfils

11:00

#10

Alexander Bublik

Gael Monfils vs Alexander Bublik Preview — Rolex Monte Carlo Masters

First-round match at the Monte Carlo Masters 1000 between French veteran Gaël Monfils and Kazakh player Alexander Bublik. Bublik is the clear bookmakers' favorite (odds 1.45 vs. 2.79 for Monfils). Historical statistics show Bublik is more effective as a favorite, while Monfils tends to lose sets even when favored. The match is played on clay, a surface that could favor Monfils' experience, but recent form and ranking give the edge to Bublik.

Our Gael Monfils vs Alexander Bublik predictions

Alexander Bublik to Win

Bublik is the clear favorite (odds 1.45). His statistics as a favorite are solid (70% wins). Monfils, as an outsider, wins only 20% of his matches. No recent injury information was found to alter this prediction. The clay surface may level the playing field, but Bublik's recent form and consistency should prevail.

1.45

Confidence

High

Over 2.5 Sets in the Match

Player statistics indicate a high probability of a three-set match. Bublik, as a favorite, loses at least one set in 70% of his matches ('perd1set_asfav_g': 70%). Monfils, as an outsider, wins at least one set in 70% of his matches ('win1set_asoutsider_g': 70%). The combination of these trends strongly suggests Monfils will win a set, leading to a three-set match.

2.42

Confidence

High

Market signals on Gael Monfils vs Alexander Bublik

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Gael Monfils vs Alexander Bublik Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Gael Monfils	Alexander Bublik
Win \| Lose	3 7	6 4
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	10%	80%
% of match in 4 sets or more	90%	20%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	40%	80%
% of match in 4 sets or more	60%	20%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	10%	70%
% of match in 4 sets or more	90%	30%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	40%	70%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	50%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	33%	66%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	100%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	20%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	33%	33%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	33%	75%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	70%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	66%	33%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	75%

Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite

	1	2
Global	80%	70%
rated between 1.00 and 1.20	0%	50%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	66%
rated between 1.51 and 1.80	66%	100%

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