Mariano Kestelboim vs Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez — Prediction
09/04/2026
Mariano / Marcelo
20:00
Today
Lorenzo / Gabriel
-
1
-
X
-
2
Match Preview
Mariano Kestelboim faces Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez in an ATP match on clay in Campinas. Kestelboim, the statistical favorite, shows solid form as a favorite, while Rodriguez, more effective as an outsider, will look to cause an upset. Recent statistics suggest a potentially short match.
Our predictions
Under 2.5 sets
Statistics from the last 10 matches (excluding Grand Slams) show that 80% of both players' matches end in 2 sets. Kestelboim has a 2-set win rate of 100% as favorite, Rodriguez 75%. No injuries reported. The probability of a 2-set match is high.
1.5
Confidence
High
Victory for Mariano Kestelboim
Kestelboim shows an 80% win rate as favorite in his last 5 matches in that role, compared to 50% for Rodriguez. His recent form is superior (2 wins out of 10 vs 3 for Rodriguez, but with a more frequent favorite context). No injury disrupts his preparation. He is the logical favorite.
1.2
Confidence
High
Under 22.5 games
With a high probability of a 2-set match (prediction 1), the total number of games tends to be low. Kestelboim's 2-set win statistics (100% as favorite) suggest potentially one-sided sets. However, Rodriguez can be resilient (50% chance of winning a set as an outsider). The odds are attractive for a bet with medium confidence.
1.9
Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 2 8 | 3 7 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 80% | 50% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 66% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 66% | 100% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 100% | 0% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 10% | 30% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 0% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 20% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 20% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 100% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 20% | 50% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 33% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 33% | 0% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 0% | 100% |
Betting actions
Manage your bets and alerts
TODAY'S OFFERS
Exclusive new customer offers