Felix Auger Aliassime vs Jannik Sinner — Prediction
10/04/2026
#6
Felix Auger-Aliassime
14:15
Today
#1
Jannik Sinner
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X
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Match Preview
Jannik Sinner, the clear favorite, faces Felix Auger-Aliassime at the Rolex Monte Carlo Masters. Sinner shows impeccable form with 10 wins in his last 10 matches, while Auger-Aliassime presents mixed results. On clay, Sinner's preferred surface, and with very low odds, a two-set victory for the Italian is expected.
Our predictions
Jannik Sinner to Win
Sinner is in exceptional form (10 consecutive wins, 100% win rate as favorite). He is the clear favorite (odds 1.08) and shows superior statistics on clay. Auger-Aliassime has inconsistent form (3 losses in last 10 matches) and has never beaten Sinner when priced between 1.0 and 1.2 (0% success rate). No injuries reported.
1.08
Confidence
Very high
Under 2.5 Sets in the Match
Sinner has a 90% two-set win rate as favorite outside Grand Slams. He has not lost a set as a favorite priced between 1.0 and 1.2 (0%). Auger-Aliassime, as an underdog, wins a set only 50% of the time against favorites priced between 1.0 and 1.2. The probability of a two-set match is very high.
1.27
Confidence
High
Under 22.5 Games in the Match
With a likely Sinner victory in two tight sets (e.g., 6-4, 6-3 = 19 games) or clearer, the total number of games should remain low. Sinner, as a heavy favorite, often dominates his matches without issues. However, Auger-Aliassime can be competitive in a few games, hence a medium confidence level.
1.37
Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 7 3 | 10 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 30% | 60% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 70% | 40% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 30% | 60% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 70% | 40% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 40% | 30% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 60% | 70% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 80% | 100% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 75% | 100% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 100% | 0% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 0% | 0% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 50% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 25% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 80% | 33% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 50% | 80% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 80% | 66% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 10% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 50% | 10% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 20% | 0% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 100% | 0% |
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