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Tennis

Joel Schwaerzler - Toby Samuel: our prediction

10/04/2026•12:25

#145

Joel Schwaerzler

0:2

6•7

Finished

#88

Toby Samuel

Joel Schwaerzler vs Toby Samuel Preview — Madrid

Joel Schwaerzler, a slight favorite, faces Toby Samuel in an ATP match in Madrid. Both players are in excellent recent form (80% and 90% wins in their last 10 matches). Samuel is more efficient at closing matches in two sets (80% vs. 60% for Schwaerzler). No known injury alerts. A tight match is expected, with a slight preference for the favorite Schwaerzler.

Our Joel Schwaerzler vs Toby Samuel predictions

Victory for Joel Schwaerzler

Schwaerzler is designated as the favorite (odds 1.85). He shows excellent form (80% wins in the last 10 matches) and a good win rate as a favorite (80%). Although Samuel is also in form, Schwaerzler has a psychological and statistical advantage as the designated favorite.

1.73

Confidence

High

Under 2.5 sets

Statistics from the last 10 matches (excluding Grand Slams) show a strong trend towards two-set matches: Schwaerzler 60%, Samuel 80%. The favorite Schwaerzler wins 60% of his matches in two sets, and Samuel 80%. The probability of a three-set match is lower (40% for Schwaerzler, 20% for Samuel).

1.56

Confidence

High

Over 22.5 games

Although the trend is towards two-set matches, the probability of Schwaerzler losing a set as a favorite is 50%. Furthermore, Samuel wins at least one set as an outsider in 70% of cases. These factors suggest that even a two-set match could be tight and exceed the total games mark of 22.5.

1.86

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Joel Schwaerzler vs Toby Samuel

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Joel Schwaerzler vs Toby Samuel Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Joel Schwaerzler	Toby Samuel
Win \| Lose	8 2	9 1
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	80%	90%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	100%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	75%	66%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	60%	30%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	50%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	80%	70%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	66%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	75%