Valentin Vacherot vs Alex De Minaur — Prediction
10/04/2026
#23
Valentin Vacherot
17:15
Today
#6
Alex de Minaur
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X
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2
Match Preview
Valentin Vacherot, the underdog, faces the favorite Alex de Minaur at the Monte Carlo Masters on clay. De Minaur, more experienced and higher-ranked, is the clear bookmakers' favorite. Vacherot would need to pull off an upset.
Our predictions
Alex de Minaur to Win
Alex de Minaur is the logical favorite (odds 1.45). He is more experienced, higher-ranked, and in excellent recent form (7 wins in 10 matches). His statistics as a favorite (70% win rate) are solid. Vacherot, although performing well as an underdog (60% chance to win a set), should be outmatched on this surface.
1.44
Confidence
High
Under 2.5 Sets (Match in 2 Sets)
De Minaur has a strong tendency to finish his matches in 2 sets when favored (70% in his last 10 non-Grand Slam matches). Vacherot, as an underdog, also often loses in 2 sets (70%). The difference in level suggests a quick match in De Minaur's favor.
1.52
Confidence
Medium
Over 22.5 Games in the Match
Although a match in 2 sets is likely, Vacherot has shown an ability to win sets against favorites (60% chance to win at least one set as an underdog). If this happens, the total games will likely exceed 22.5. However, the probability of a one-sided match remains higher.
1.92
Confidence
Low
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 7 3 | 7 3 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 50% | 70% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 50% | 30% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 50% | 70% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 50% | 30% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 50% | 50% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 50% | 50% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 100% | 70% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 66% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 100% | 80% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 100% | 0% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 30% | 30% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 33% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 25% | 100% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 66% | 75% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 100% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 50% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 33% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 42% | 60% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 33% | 0% |
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