Rugby

Tennis

Alejandro Tabilo - Joao Fonseca: our prediction

14/04/2026•11:10

Alejandro Tabilo

0:2

6•7

3•6

Finished

#26

Joao Fonseca

Alejandro Tabilo vs Joao Fonseca Preview — BMW Open

First-round match at the BMW Open (ATP 250) on clay between the experienced and in-form Alejandro Tabilo and the young Brazilian hope Joao Fonseca. Fonseca is the bookmakers' favorite, but Tabilo has solid experience on this surface and good recent form, promising a tight contest.

Our Alejandro Tabilo vs Joao Fonseca predictions

Joao Fonseca to Win

Fonseca is clearly the favorite (odds 1.40). His stats over the last 10 matches are superior (70% win rate vs. 60% for Tabilo). He is also more effective as a favorite (80% win rate) and has shown a great ability to win at least one set even as an underdog (70%). His youth and aggressiveness on clay make him the logical choice.

1.4

Confidence

High

Over 2.5 Sets in the Match

Both players' statistics as favorite/underdog suggest a three-set match. Tabilo, as an underdog, wins at least one set 50% of the time. Fonseca, as a favorite, loses at least one set 60% of the time. Furthermore, their respective percentages of 3-set matches (outside Majors) are 40% each, which is high. The combination of Tabilo's experience and Fonseca's favorite status makes a long match very likely.

2.4

Confidence

High

Over 22.5 Games in the Match

This bet is consistent with the prediction of a three-set match. A three-set match on clay often exceeds the 22.5-game mark, especially if the sets are close. Given the level of both players and their fighting ability (Tabilo wins 50% of sets as an underdog, Fonseca loses 60% as a favorite), it is reasonable to expect tight sets, which should drive up the total number of games.

1.87

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Alejandro Tabilo vs Joao Fonseca

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Alejandro Tabilo vs Joao Fonseca Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Alejandro Tabilo	Joao Fonseca
Win \| Lose	6 4	7 3
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	60%	60%
% of match in 4 sets or more	40%	40%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	25%	55%
% of match in 4 sets or more	75%	44%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	60%	100%
% of match in 4 sets or more	40%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	90%	80%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	83%	75%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	80%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	20%	30%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	33%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	20%	33%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	50%	70%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	33%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	60%	100%