Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Jesper De Jong — Prediction
12/04/2026
#64
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
12:15
Today
#108
Jesper de Jong
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1
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X
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2
Match Preview
Juan Manuel Cerundolo, the bookmakers' favorite, faces Jesper de Jong in the qualifying rounds of the Barcelona tournament on clay. Cerundolo shows better recent form (60% wins in the last 10 matches) and a strong ability to win as a favorite (70%). De Jong, although performing well as an outsider in long matches, has more irregular form (50% wins). No injuries reported. The match should be close, with a high probability of lasting three sets.
Our predictions
Over 2.5 sets in the match
Statistics indicate a strong tendency for three-set matches for both players in non-Grand Slam tournaments. Cerundolo has 70% of his recent matches in 3 sets, and De Jong 50%. Furthermore, De Jong often loses a set as a favorite (80%), and Cerundolo often wins one as an outsider (80%). The favorite's odds (1.65) suggest a balanced match, increasing the likelihood of a long match.
2.26
Confidence
High
Over 22.5 games in the match
With a high probability of a three-set match (see analysis of bet 1), the total number of games should exceed 22.5. Three-set matches on clay tend to be long, with tight games. Player statistics show that both are capable of winning and losing sets, which often leads to scores like 7-5, 4-6, 6-4, totaling well over 22 games. The combination of player form and trends supports this scenario.
1.89
Confidence
High
Victory of Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Cerundolo is the designated favorite (odds 1.65). He shows better recent form (60% wins vs. 50% for De Jong) and excellent performance as a favorite (70% wins). However, his tendency to lose sets as a favorite (60%) and De Jong's ability to force long matches (70% of his matches in 4 sets or more in Grand Slam as an outsider) make this victory not guaranteed, hence a medium confidence level.
1.64
Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 6 4 | 5 5 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 50% | 20% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 30% | 70% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 100% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 100% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 50% | 28% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 50% | 71% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 70% | 50% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 100% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 75% | 50% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 60% | 0% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 30% | 20% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 40% | 20% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 50% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 80% | 30% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 33% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 100% | 20% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 75% | 50% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 80% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 100% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 50% | 75% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 80% | 100% |
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