Lisa Pigato - Marina Bassols Ribera: our prediction

Despite her underdog status, Bassols Ribera shows significantly better form (70% wins in last 10 matches vs 40% for Pigato). Her statistics as a favorite (80% wins) and her ability to win at least one set as an underdog (70%) are solid. Pigato, although favored, has a low performance in this role (25% wins) and systematically loses a set when favored (100%). The value lies with Bassols Ribera.

Both players' statistics indicate a high probability of a three-set match. Pigato always loses at least one set when favored (100%). Bassols Ribera often wins a set as an underdog (70%). Furthermore, their percentages of matches going to 3 sets (outside Grand Slams) are high: 40% for Pigato and 30% for Bassols Ribera. Recent form and balance suggest a long match.

The prediction of a three-set match (over 2.5 sets) mathematically increases the chances of exceeding the 22.5 games threshold. Even a two-set match with tight sets (e.g., 7-5, 7-5) reaches 24 games. Considering the profiles and the tendency for contested sets (Pigato often loses a set, Bassols Ribera is combative), the total number of games should be high. Confidence is medium because a very clear two-set match remains possible.